Monday, April 22, 2013

Top Wide Receiver Short List - 4/22/13

Ok so let's start on the offense.  Just to give y'all an update I decided to adjust the weightings to give measurables a little bit more weight than I have been giving in the past and will eventually give an update on all the previous rankings.  I wanted to make sure production was dominant so initially it was 75/25 in favor of production, but I will adjust it to 60/40 in favor of production after having seen the results.  The results I was getting deviated too much from the mocks and historically the mocks and actual drafts have done a fairly good job identifying the best players.  The purpose of the stat model was to take some of the measurables bias away from the evaluation.  Keep in mind the measurables that are used in these models are based on metrics that have shown a history of statistical relevance according to Draftmetrics.  No offensive lineman nor a QB needs a fast 40 and unfortunately people will still be influenced by bad numbers in this area.  Remember Tom Brady ran a 5.28 sec 40yd dash.  Furthermore there are some anomalies in measurables.  The average successful NFL safety actual bench pressed less on average than the rest of his peer group.  Successful corners typically bench pressed more than his peers.  One might think the bench press combine statistic would be irrelevant for corners.  In any case, I've used Draftmetrics to isolate the best measurables so even though I use the term 'measurables' this may differ from another evaluator's 'measurables.'

Here is the overall ranking for WR with a 60/40 weighting.  For measurables I used: Height, Weight, 40yd dash, Vertical, Broad Jump.   The stats I used were simply Yds/Game & TDs and made adjustments for competition based on conferences.  Unfortunately I didn't have any drop statistics.  I think Belichick once said all a good receiver needed to do was two things: 1) get open and 2) catch the ball.   I gave Juniors a positive adjustment because there is typically a maturing process for WRs and you should expect productive Juniors who leave early to have much better Senior seasons if they were to stay in college.  Also note KR/PR/Rushing stats are not included which hurts Cordarelle Patterson and Tavon Austin.  I just stuck with pure receiving stats.   Here is the list:

Overall Ranking: (60% Active Stats/ 40% Measurables)
1. * Stedman Bailey, West Virginia 2.43
2. * Justin Hunter, Tennessee 2.16
3. Terrance Williams, Baylor 2.15
4. Da'Rick Rogers, (former Tennessee), 2.05
5. *De'Andre Hopkins, Clemson, 1.88
6. *Robert Woods, USC 1.74 
7. *Cordarelle Patterson, Tennessee 1.66
8. Quinton Patton, Lousiana Tech 1.58
9. Tavon Austin, West Virginia 1.57
10. Keenan Allen, California 1.43
11. Aaron Dobson, Marshall 1.39
12. Markus Wheaton, Oregon St, 1.30

For comparison here is what happens when measurables are dominant.  I feel the NFL draft will look closer to this (Austin & Cordarelle would go higher because of their special team/rushing skills):

Ranking: (40% Active Stats/ 60% Measurables)
1. * Justin Hunter, Tennessee 2.41
2. Da'Rick Rogers, (former Tennessee), 2.30
3. Terrance Williams, Baylor 2.19
4. *Cordarelle Patterson, Tennessee 2.11
5. * Stedman Bailey, West Virginia 2.07
6. *De'Andre Hopkins, Clemson, 2.018.
7.  Aaron Dobson, Marshall 1.84
8. *Robert Woods, USC 1.81
9. Quinton Patton, Lousiana Tech 1.69
10. Keenan Allen, California 1.53
11. Tavon Austin, West Virginia 1.44
12. Markus Wheaton, Oregon St, 1.41

Next up: TE's!

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