Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Top Quarterback Short List - 4/24/13

Here is the short list for QB's.  I used the following stats, metrics, and weightings:
Career QB Rating (using NFL formula) 55%
Completion % (accuracy) 15%
Career Yds (experience) 15%
Conference (competition level) 15%

1. Geno Smith, West Virginia 2.53
2. Matt Barkley, USC 1.93
3. Landry Jones, Oklahoma 1.79
4. EJ Manuel, Florida St 1.71
5. Tyler Wilson, Arkansas 1.44
6. Tyler Bray, Tennessee 1.42
7. Ryan Nassib, Syracuse 1.05
8. Zac Dysart, Miami (OH) 0.97   
9. Mike Glennon, NC State 0.88
10. Matt Scott, Arizona 0.79

I used a pretty basic formula and didn't have much time to develop it further.  It seems to work well in capturing much of what I want so I say good enough!  

This is taken from a series of posts I made in the forum from 3/4/2011 to 3/14/11.  Based on this I'm going to narrow the QB short list to just three.  QB is a difficult position to analyze so a couple years ago I made an attempt, but never finished. The following is the analysis I started on:

This is a great website to look at past drafts by position... since the QB position is on everyone's mind I'll start the discussion going with QB's.

It seems there are only couple strong starting QB's drafted each year. Taking a quick look at the past 16 drafts here is my list of strong starters: (I did this quick so please feel free to make adjustments)

Overall Pick #

3 *Steve McNair Oilers Alcorn State
5 Kerry Collins Panthers Penn State


42 Jake Plummer Cardinals Arizona State

1 *Peyton Manning Colts Tennessee
91 Brian Griese Broncos Michigan
187 *Matt Hasselbeck Packers Boston College

2 *Donovan McNabb Eagles Syracuse
11 *Daunte Culpepper Vikings Central Florida
131 Aaron Brooks Packers Virginia

18 *Chad Pennington Jets Marshall
168 *Marc Bulger Saints West Virginia
199 *Tom Brady Patriots Michigan

1 *Michael Vick Falcons Virginia Tech
32 *Drew Brees Chargers Purdue

108 *David Garrard Jaguars East Carolina

1 *Carson Palmer Bengals USC

1 *Eli Manning Chargers Mississippi
4 *Philip Rivers Giants North Carolina State
11 *Ben Roethlisberger Steelers Miami (OH)
90 *Matt Schaub Falcons Virginia

24 *Aaron Rodgers Packers California
106 Kyle Orton Bears Purdue
230 *Matt Cassel Patriots USC

3 Vince Young Titans Texas
11 *Jay Cutler Broncos Vanderbilt

36 Kevin Kolb Eagles Houston

3 *Matt Ryan Falcons Boston College
18 *Joe Flacco Ravens Delaware

1 Matthew Stafford Lions Georgia
5 Mark Sanchez Jets USC
17 *Josh Freeman Buccaneers Kansas State

1 *Sam Bradford Rams Oklahoma
25 Tim Tebow Broncos Florida
85 Colt McCoy Browns Texas

*Franchise QB
Italics: Borderline/unproven/newly drafted

49ers picked Jim Druckenmiller at #26/ first QB taken overall/ 1st Rde in 1997
49ers picked Giovanni Carmazzi at #65/ second QB taken overall/3rd Rd in 2000
Tony Romo was undrafted in 2003

My conclusion is that franchise QB's are hard to find. It's rare to have more than a couple franchise QB's in a draft... Most often there is only ONE and sometimes none. The average # of franchise QB's in a draft is 1.25 (roughly 20 franchise QB's out of the past 16 drafts.)

Knowing this, rather than considering more than 4-5 QB's, do you think there will be any franchise QB's in 2011? It may be better to pick your top 2 because the rest will probably be nothing special. I'm skeptical about this class of QB's but I'm going to narrow my prospects to my top 2 or 3.

Part of my analysis will be:
What are the stats of these QB's?
(QB rating/Completion %/Yds/Games Played)
I like this method as a start: Rule of 26-27-60

What school/division did they play for?
Stats must be adjusted by level of competition
QB's from smaller schools should be discounted significantly.

What type of offense did they play in college?
People who play in gimmick offenses should be deeply discounted

What intangibles do they have?
Like Eli Manning - 'Eli, Ernie Accorsi and Michael Lewis'

(Also as part of the stat analysis it would be nice to have ACE ratings (Adjusted comeback efficiency ratings)

Special circumstances:
Injury/Terrible coaching/system/o-line/receivers etc.

Let me know what you guys think.... I'm going to do this for every position... and limit the number of potential draftees to get a short list.

While analyzing the franchise QB’s that have come out in the past, I decided to just copy and paste the college bios from Wikipedia. I'll start with the franchise QB's picked in the 1st round of the draft:

#1  Steve McNair, Alcorn State University (Div I-AA)

1994 Walter Payton Award as the top player in NCAA Division I-AA
McNair played college football for Alcorn State University. In 1992, McNair threw for 3,541 yards and 29 touchdowns, and ran in for 10 more scores. The Braves fashioned a record of 74, including a last-second victory in their rematch with Grambling. In that contest, McNair returned from an injury and helped Alcorn State, trailing late in the final period, move deep into Tigers' territory. Then, despite a leg injury, he tucked the ball under his arm and dove into the end zone for the winning touchdown. The victory over Grambling helped the Braves qualify for the I-AA playoffs. McNair helped Alcorn State to another good year in 1993, as the Braves upped their record to 83 while McNair threw for more than 3,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. He was also named First-Team All-SWAC for the third year in a row.
In his senior season, McNair gained nearly 6,000 yards rushing and passing, along with 53 touchdowns. In the process, he surpassed more than a dozen records and was named an All-American. In addition, McNair won the Walter Payton Award as the top I-AA player and finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting behind Rashaan Salaam and Ki-Jana Carter.
McNair set career records for the Football Championship Series with 14,496 passing yards, as well as the division record for total offensive yards with 16,283 career yards.[5] The records still stand.[5]

#2  Peyton Manning, Tennessee (SEC)

Manning stunned many when he chose to attend the University of Tennessee instead of Ole Miss, his father's alma mater.[13] He became Tennessee's all-time leading passer with 11,201 yards and 89 touchdowns and won 39 of 45 games as a starter, breaking the Southeastern Conference (SEC) record for career wins.[14][15]
As a freshman, Manning was the third-string quarterback, but injuries to Todd Helton and Jerry Colquitt forced him to take over the Mississippi State game, a 2421 loss. In his first start, the following week against Washington State, the Vols won, 109, and the Vols won all but one of their remaining games, finishing the season 84 with a 4523 victory over Virginia Tech in the Gator Bowl.[16][17][18]
Manning and the Vols started off the 1995 season with victories over East Carolina and Georgia, before heading off to Gainesville to play the Gators.[19] Against Florida, he threw for 326 yards and 2 touchdowns, leading the Vols to a 3021 halftime lead. However, the Gators outscored the Vols 417 in the second half, winning 6237.[20] This would be the Vols' only loss of the season, as they won their remaining 8 regular season games, including a 4114 win over Alabama and then defeated Ohio State in the Citrus Bowl.[21][22] The Vols ended the season ranked third and Manning came in sixth in Heisman Trophy voting.[23]
The Vols opened the 1996 season ranked second behind Nebraska and one of the favorites to win the national championship.[24] However, after winning their first two games against UNLV and UCLA, the Vols again lost to Florida, 3529, with Manning throwing four interceptions.[25] After winning their next four games, the Vols were upset by Memphis, despite Manning passing for 296 yards.[26] The Vols won the remainder of their games, including a 4828 win in the Citrus Bowl over Northwestern, a game in which Manning passed for 408 yards and 4 touchdowns; he was named the game's MVP.[27][28]
Manning completed his degree in three years, and was projected to be the top overall pick in the NFL Draft, but returned to Tennessee for his senior year.[29] In his senior season, the Vols opened the season with victories against Texas Tech and UCLA, but for the third time in his career, Manning fell to Florida, 3320.[30][31][32] The Vols won the rest of their regular season games, finishing 101, and advanced to the SEC Championship game against Auburn. Down 207, Manning led the Vols to a 3029 victory. Throwing for 4 touchdowns, he was named the game's MVP, but injured himself in the process.[33][34] The 3rd-ranked Vols were matched-up with 2nd-ranked Nebraska in the Orange Bowl; if Tennessee won and top-ranked Michigan lost to Washington State in the Rose Bowl, the Vols would win the national championship.[35] However, the Vols' defense could not stop Nebraska's rushing attack, giving up over 400 rushing yards in a 4217 loss.[36] As a senior, Manning won numerous awards; he was a consensus First-team All-American, the Maxwell Award winner, the Davey O'Brien Award winner, the Johnny Unitas Award winner, and the Best College Player ESPY award winner, among others; however, he did not win the Heisman, finishing runner-up to Charles Woodson.

#3  Donovan McNabb, Syracuse (Big East)

Though McNabb was approached by recruiters from numerous colleges, only two schoolsSyracuse University and the University of Nebraskaoffered him scholarships to play as quarterback.[4] He initially leaned toward attending Nebraska, as he relished the idea of being coached by Tom Osborne. Eventually, however, he decided to attend Syracuse, principally because he wanted to prove he was a competent "pocket passer", but also for academic reasons.[citation needed]
After redshirting in 1994, his first year at Syracuse, McNabb went on to start every game during his college career, compiling a 3514 record.[5] As a freshman, he completed the longest touchdown pass in Syracuse's historya 96-yard throw against West Virginia Universityin a game where he accounted for 354 total yards of offense;[6] he was named the Big East Conference's rookie of the year at the end of the season.[7] McNabb amassed 2,892 yards of total offense in his junior season to set a school record.[8] As a senior, he led Syracuse to a berth in the Orange Bowl against Florida as he completed 157 of 251 passes (62.5%) for 2,134 yards; he also pushed the eventual champions, the 1998 Tennessee Volunteers, to the limit in a very close game. His 22 touchdown passes tied the school's single season record, set by former Eagle Don McPherson in 1987. McNabb also rushed 135 times for 438 yards and 8 touchdowns. He ranked sixth in the nation with a 158.9 passing efficiency rating and 22nd in total offense, with 233.8 yards per game. He tied a school record with 4 touchdown passes against Cincinnati, and scored 5 touchdowns against Miami (3 rushing and 2 passing).
McNabb was named the Big East's offensive player of the decade for the 1990s,[9] and Big East Offensive Player of the Year an unprecedented three times from 199698,[7] as well as the first-team all-conference vote earner in each of his four seasons. Later, he was named to the Syracuse All-Century Football team.[10] He also spent two years as a reserve on the school's nationally ranked basketball team, including the 1996 squad that lost to Kentucky in the National Championship game.
McNabb was also a walk-on for two seasons for the Syracuse basketball team under legendary head coach Jim Boeheim.[11]
Big East records
 1st - touchdown passes (77)[12]
  2nd - touchdowns responsible for (96) behind Pat White[13]
  5th - passing yards (8,389)[12]
  3rd - total offensive yards (9,950)[13] behind Matt Grothe and Pat White
  1st - total offensive plays (1,403) [13]
Syracuse University records
  1st - total yards per game (221.1)
  1st - passing efficiency (155.1)
  1st - yards per attempt (9.1)

#4  Dante Culpepper, UCF (Conference USA)

He struggled to get into college, because of low SAT scores.[citation needed] Marquee football schools, such as the University of Miami and University of Florida, backed off from recruiting him when it was assumed he would not qualify.[citation needed] The University of Central Florida, however, offered to tutor him and help him achieve the necessary scores, and he was able to qualify. Although the big college programs returned to recruit him, as a show of loyalty, Culpepper enrolled at UCF.
Although he had a love for baseball, Culpepper committed to play football at UCF as a quarterback. He rewrote virtually all of the school's quarterback records, approximately 30 in all, many held by Darin Slack since 1987. He also set an NCAA record for single-season completion percentage at 73.6%, breaking a 15-year-old mark set by Steve Young (71.3%). This record would stand until Colt McCoy (Texas) finished the 2008 season with a completion percentage of 77.6%. Culpepper accomplished a feat equaled by only two others in NCAA history when he topped the 10,000 yard passing mark and the 1,000 yard rushing mark in his career. He finished his career sixth on the NCAA's all-time total offense list for all divisions with 12,459 yards and was responsible for 108 career touchdowns (84 passing).
After his junior season, he was being lured out of the collegiate ranks to enter the draft and join the NFL, but instead returned to UCF to graduate and play his senior year. UCF posted a 92 record, losing only to Purdue and Auburn.
Year Team Passing Yards TD INT
1995 UCF 2071 12 10
1996 UCF 2565 19 15
1997 UCF 3086 25 10
1998 UCF 3690 28 7

#5 Chad Pennington  Marshall, (Conference USA)

Originally the Thundering Herd's fourth-string quarterback in 1995 (and slated to be redshirted), Pennington led Marshall to the NCAA Division I-AA Football Championship game, in which Marshall lost to Montana, 22-20. The following year, Pennington was redshirted in favor of Eric Kresser, a transfer from the University of Florida who guided the Herd's return to the 1-AA Championship game in 1996. Pennington returned to play in 1997 as Marshall moved from Division 1-AA to Division 1-A football. His senior year (1999) featured Marshall having an undefeated and untied record (13-0) as Pennington led the team to its third consecutive Mid-American Conference championship.
Pennington set school records in several passing categories. Randy Moss was Pennington's top receiver at Marshall. He finished fifth in Heisman voting in 1999. Pennington was selected by the New York Jets in the first round and was the eighteenth (18th) overall pick of the 2000 NFL Draft. Pennington finished his career at Marshall with 1,026 of 1,619 completions for 13,423 yards and 115 touchdowns, with only 45 interceptions.[4]
He led Marshall to the school's first bowl victory in a 48-29 routing of Louisville in the 1998 Motor City Bowl. Pennington was the bowl game's MVP. Pennington and Marshall returned to Pontiac, Michigan, the following year taking a 21-3 victory over Brigham Young, capping Pennington's undefeated senior season which earned Pennington the nickname "The Golden Boy."
In addition to his success on the football field, Pennington excelled academically, graduating with a degree in journalism, a 3.83 grade point average and becoming a finalist for the Rhodes Scholarship. He wrote frequently for Marshall's newspaper The Parthenon and was a broadcaster for the school's radio station, although he used a pseudonym on air so as not to be distracting.[5]

#6 Michael Vick  Virginia Tech, (ACC)

In his first collegiate game as a redshirt freshman against James Madison in 1999, Vick scored three rushing touchdowns in just over one quarter of play. His last touchdown was a spectacular flip in which he landed awkwardly on his ankle, forcing him to miss the remainder of the game in addition to the following game. During the season, Vick led a last-minute game-winning drive against West Virginia in the annual Black Diamond Trophy game. He led the Hokies to an 110 season and to the Bowl Championship Series national title game in the Nokia Sugar Bowl against Florida State. Although Virginia Tech lost 4629, Vick was able to bring the team back from a 21 point deficit to take a brief lead. During the season, Vick appeared on the cover of an ESPN The Magazine issue.
Vick led the NCAA in passing efficiency that year, setting a record for a freshman (180.4), which was good enough for the third-highest all-time mark. Vick was awarded an ESPY Award as the nation's top college player and won the first-ever Archie Griffin Award as college football's most valuable player. He was invited to the 1999 Heisman Trophy presentation and finished third in the voting behind Ron Dayne and Joe Hamilton. Vick's third place finish matched the highest finish ever by a freshman up to that point, first set by Herschel Walker in 1980.
Vick's 2000 season had highlights, such as his career rushing high of 210 yards against the Boston College in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. Against West Virginia University in the Black Diamond Trophy game, Vick accounted for 288 total yards of offense and two touchdowns in a 4820 win. The following week, Vick led the Hokies from a 140 deficit against Syracuse at the Carrier Dome, where the Hokies had not won since 1986. Vick put the game away with a 55-yard run with 1:34 left.[11]
The following game against Pittsburgh, Vick was injured and had to miss the rest of the game as well as the entire game against Central Florida, and was unable to start against the Miami Hurricanes, the Hokies' lone loss of the season. Vick's final game at Virginia Tech came against the Clemson Tigers in the Toyota Gator Bowl, where he was named MVP of the game.
Vick left Virginia Tech after his redshirt sophomore season. Aware that the rest of his family was still living in their 3 bedroom apartment in the Ridley Circle Homes, Vick stated that he was going to buy his mother "a home and a car." ESPN later reported that Vick used some of his NFL and endorsement earnings to buy his mother a brand-new house in an upscale section of Suffolk, Virginia.[12]
Passing Rushing
1999 90 153 58.8 1840 12 5 110 580 8
2000 97 179 54.2 1439 9 7 113 636 9

#7 Drew Brees  Purdue, (Big Ten)

Brees graduated from Purdue University with a degree in industrial management.[7] He left Purdue with Big Ten Conference records in passing yards (11,792), touchdown passes (90), total offensive yards (12,693), completions (1,026), and attempts (1,678). He led the Boilermakers to the 2001 Rose Bowl, Purdue's first appearance there since 1967. In the game Purdue lost by ten points to the Washington Huskies. Brees was a finalist for the Davey O'Brien Award as the nation's best quarterback in 1999. He won the Maxwell Award as the nation's outstanding player of 2000 and won the NCAA's Today's Top VIII Award as a member of the Class of 2001. Brees was also fourth in Heisman Trophy voting in 1999 and third in 2000. Brees also set an NCAA record with the longest pass ever (99 yards), to receiver Vinny Sutherland against Northwestern on September 25, 1999
As a senior, Brees was named the Academic All-America Player of the Year, the first Purdue player since Bruce Brineman (1989) to earn national academic honors. Brees also was awarded Purdue's Leonard Wilson Award for unselfishness and dedication.
Awards and honors
  2 — Heisman Trophy Finalist
  Outback Bowl MVP
  Alamo Bowl MVP
  Big Ten Football MVP (2000)
  Maxwell Award (2000)

#8 Carson Palmer  USC, (Pac-10)

Carson Palmer arrived at the University of Southern California in 1998 and immediately competed for the starting quarterback job with Mike Van Raaphorst. Van Raaphorst won, but due to his ineffectiveness, Palmer was named the starter in the ninth game of the season, becoming only the second true freshman ever to start as quarterback for the Trojans. Palmer roomed with fellow USC football player, Troy Polamalu, who now plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers, a division rival of the Cincinnati Bengals and Matt Cassel of the Kansas City Chiefs.
After three underwhelming years at USC, Palmer had a breakout senior year under the tutelage of new offensive coordinator Norm Chow, who was brought in the year before by head coach Pete Carroll after spending 27 seasons at Brigham Young University and one season at North Carolina State University. The revamped Trojans offense led to Carson Palmer becoming the fifth Trojan to win the Heisman Trophy, after running backs Mike Garrett (1965), O.J. Simpson (1968), Charles White (1979), and Marcus Allen (1981). Palmer was the first Trojan quarterback to be so honored; his successor, Matt Leinart, won it as a junior in 2004.
Carson Palmer completed 309 of 489 passes for 3942 yards and 33 touchdowns with only 10 interceptions during the 2002 season, and later led the Trojans to an impressive 3817 victory over the University of Iowa in the Orange Bowl. His completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns were all USC single season records. In a November 30 game against Notre Dame, Palmer threw for 425 yards and led his team to 610 yards of total offense, the most ever gained against Notre Dame in each category. Palmer left college as the Pac-10 Conference's all-time leader in passing yards (11,818), completions (927) and total offense (11,621), along with 72 career touchdown passes, a USC record at that time  Matt Leinart has since surpassed the record, which currently stands at 99.
Stats at USC
  1999: 39/53 (73.6%) for 490 yards, 3 Passing TDs and 1 Rushing TD; with 3 Interceptions
  2000: 228/415 (54.9%) for 2914 yards, 16 Passing TDs and 2 Rushing TDs; with 18 Interceptions
  2001: 221/377 (58.6%) for 2717 yards, 13 Passing TDs and 1 Rushing TD; with 12 Interceptions
  2002: 309/489 (63.2%) for 3942 yards, 33 Passing TDs and 4 Rushing TDs; with 10 Interceptions

#9 Eli Manning, Ole Miss (SEC)

During his football career at Ole Miss, Manning set or tied 45 single-game, season, and career records. His career numbers include 10,119 passing yards (fifth on the SEC career list), 81 touchdown passes (third on the SEC career list), and a passer rating of 137.7 (tied for sixth on the SEC career list). Manning also led the Rebels to a 10-3 record and a 31-28 SBC Cotton Bowl Classic victory over the Oklahoma State Cowboys in 2003. He was invited to play in the 2004 Senior Bowl, but chose not to play.[2]
As his senior year came to a close, Manning won many awards including the Maxwell Award as the nation s best all-around player, the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, the National Football Foundation and College Hall of Fame Scholar Athlete Award, the Sporting News Radio Socrates Award, and the SEC Player of the Year. He was also a candidate for the Heisman Trophy but lost to Oklahoma's quarterback Jason White (1,481 voting points). Manning had 710 voting points making him third behind White and University of Pittsburgh wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald.[3]
Manning graduated from the University of Mississippi with a degree in marketing and a GPA of 3.44.[4]
College Awards
  2002 Independence Bowl MVP
  2003 Cotton Bowl Classic Offensive MVP
  2003 Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award Winner
  2003 Maxwell Award
  2 — Conerly Trophy Winner (2001 & 2003)
  4x American award Winner(2000-04)

#10 Philip Rivers, NC State (ACC)

After high school, Rivers attended North Carolina State University in Raleigh, North Carolina, where he played for coach Chuck Amato. During his collegiate career, Rivers shattered almost every NC State and Atlantic Coast Conference passing record. His career culminated with a record 51st college start. The Wolfpack went to four consecutive bowl games under the leadership of Rivers, winning three of them, including a New Year's Day victory over Notre Dame in the 2003 Gator Bowl.
Rivers was named ACC Athlete of the Year in 2004 and was also named the game MVP of four bowl games, two Tangerine Bowls, a Gator Bowl and the 2004 Senior Bowl. Rivers was even named the "Offensive MVP" for NC State in a losing cause to Pittsburgh in 2001's Tangerine Bowl. He was considered a Heisman candidate by some journalists,[4] but he was not invited to the Heisman Trophy presentation. Rivers finished his career with 13,484 passing yards, 4th all-time among Division 1-A quarterbacks (he was 2nd at the end of his collegiate career). He also threw 95 touchdown passes, which ties him for eighth all-time with Kliff Kingsbury and Brady Quinn. Rivers' number was retired before his final home game at North Carolina State.

#11 Ben Roethlisberger, Miami (OH) (MAC)

Roethslisberger played college quarterback at Miami University in Oxford, Ohio. At Miami, he got a chance to start as a redshirt freshman and started three years of Division I college football despite only a single year experience as a high school quarterback.[7] Roethlisberger holds every major passing record at the school and a number of passing records in the Mid-American Conference (MAC). He played just three years before joining the NFL.
As a redshirt freshman, Roethlisberger threw for over 3,100 yards. In 2002, he threw more than 3,200 yards, and in 2003, he threw more than 4,400 yards. In 2003, Roethlisberger led the Miami RedHawks to an unbeaten record in the MAC, a No. 10 ranking in the Associated Press poll and a 49-28 victory over Louisville in the 2003 GMAC Bowl.[7]

#12 Aaron Rodgers, Cal (Pac-10)

Despite his record-setting statistics, Rodgers, who measured at 5-foot-10 and weighed 165 pounds as a senior,[10] both undersized for Division I quarterbacks, garnered little interest from programs with only one offer, that of a walk-on from Illinois. He declined the invitation and attended Butte Community College in Oroville, about 15 miles (25 km) southeast of Chico. In his freshman season, he threw 28 touchdowns while leading Butte to a 101 record, a NorCal Conference championship, and a No. 2 national ranking. While there, Rodgers was discovered by the Bears head coach Jeff Tedford, who was recruiting Butte tight end Garrett Cross. Because he had a 3.6 grade point average and SAT score of 1300 out of high school, Rodgers was eligible to transfer after one year of junior college instead of the typical two.[11]
As a junior college transfer, Rodgers had three years of eligibility at Cal. He was named the starting quarterback in the fifth game of the 2003 season, coincidentally against the only team that offered him a Division I opportunity out of high school, Illinois. As a sophomore, he helped lead the Golden Bears to a 73 record as a starter.[12] Against the then-No. 3 ranked USC in his second career start, Rodgers led the team to a 217 halftime lead before being replaced due to injury in the second half by Reggie Robertson.[13][14] The Bears won in triple overtime, 3431.[13] Rodgers passed for 394 yards and was named game MVP in the Insight Bowl against Virginia Tech. In 2003, Rodgers tied the school season record for 300-yard games with 5 and set a school record for lowest percentage of passes intercepted at 1.43%.[15]
As a junior, Rodgers led Cal to a 101 record and top-five ranking at the end of the regular season, with their only loss coming in a closely contested and well-played game at #1 USC, 1723. In that game, Rodgers set a school record for consecutive completed passes with 26 and tied an NCAA record with 23 consecutive passes completed in one game. Rodgers set a school single game record for passing completion, completing 85.3% of his passes in that game. Rodgers also holds the school career record for lowest percentage of passes intercepted at 1.95%.[15] Despite these records, the Bears had 1st and goal with 1:47 remaining and could not score a winning touchdown. The game-ending sequence included three incomplete passes and a sack by USC.[16]
After Texas was picked over Cal for a Rose Bowl berth, the fourth-ranked Bears earned a spot in the Holiday Bowl, but lost to Texas Tech, 4531.
  2003 Honorable mention All-Pac-10[20]
  2003 Insight Bowl Offensive MVP
  2004 Cal Co-Offensive MVP[21]
  2004 First-team All-Pac-10[22]

#13 Jay Cutler, Vanderbuilt (SEC)

Cutler attended Vanderbilt University, where he started all 45 career games that he played for the Commodores, the most starts by a quarterback in school history. He did not miss a game due to injury.[1] The Commodores were 11-35 during his tenure, including going 5-27 versus the SEC. In 2002, Cutler set the school record for touchdowns and rushing yards by a freshman and rushed for more yards than any other Southeastern Conference quarterback that year. The Associated Press honored him with a first-team freshman All-SEC selection.[1] In 2004, as a junior, Cutler completed 61.0 percent of his passes, setting a school record, while throwing for 1,844 yards with 10 touchdowns and a career-low five interceptions.[1]
The 2005 season, Cutler's final year of play at Vanderbilt, was his most successful. As an 11-game starter, he completed 273-of-462 passes (59.1%) for 3,073 yards, 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions, as he became the first Commodore to win the SEC Offensive Player of the Year (coaches and media) since 1967.[1] With his senior-season performance, Cutler became the second Commodore to throw for more than 3,000 yards in a season, while his 273 completions and 21 touchdowns ranked second on the school s single-season list.[1] He led the Commodores to victories over Wake Forest, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Richmond and Tennessee. The Commodores also scored the second most points ever (42) laid upon the Florida Gators at their current home field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Vanderbilt nearly upset the 13th-ranked Gators before falling 4942 in the second overtime after a controversial excessive celebration call prevented the commodores from going for 2 at the end of regulation. Reflecting on Cutler's college career, former Denver Broncos safety John Lynch said, "If this guy can take a bunch of future doctors and lawyers and have them competing against the Florida Gators, this guy is a stud."[4]
The Commodores ended their season, and Cutler's Vanderbilt career, at Tennessee against the Tennessee Volunteers with a 2824 win. The victory was Vanderbilt's first over the Volunteers since 1982, the year before Cutler was born. The win also marked Vanderbilt's first victory over Tennessee on the Volunteers' home field in Knoxville since 1975.[5] Cutler passed for three touchdowns and 315 yards during the game, becoming the first quarterback in school history to record four consecutive 300-yard passing performances.[1] Cutler's final play in college was the game-winning (and streak-ending) touchdown pass to teammate Earl Bennett against Tennessee. A finalist for the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award (nation s top senior quarterback), Cutler was a first-team All-SEC pick by the league s coaches and led the conference with a school-record 3,288 yards of total offense.[1]
While at Vanderbilt, Cutler was a three-year captain and four-year starter, setting school career records for total offense (9,953 yds.), touchdown passes (59), passing yards (8,697), pass completions (710), pass attempts (1,242) and combined touchdowns (76).
  The Sporting News third-team freshman All-American (2002)
  Associated Press first-team freshman All-SEC (2002)
  First-team All-SEC (2005)
  SEC Offensive Player of the Year (2005)
  Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award finalist (2005)

#14 Matt Ryan, Boston College (ACC)

Before the 2004 season, he was named the backup quarterback for Boston College due to an injury to Quinton Porter. He saw his first action on October 2, 2004 against the UMass Minutemen. He completed two of three passes for 16 yards. He completed his first touchdown on November 20, 2004 against Temple on a 32-yard completion to Larry Lester. Replacing the injured Paul Peterson, he completed eight of 15 passes for 121 yards. He made his first collegiate start on November 27, 2004 in the final game of that season, completing 24 of 51 passes for 200 yards against Syracuse. He also played against North Carolina in the Continental Tire Bowl. He completed one of his two passes for 13 yards. Matt was also quite proficient in the classroom, and was awarded the 2004 Freshman Male Scholar-Athlete award that same year.[9]
2005 season
At the beginning of the 2005 season, Ryan was named the second string quarterback behind Quinton Porter. Porter had some success at the beginning of the year, including winning Atlantic Coast Conference player of the week for his performance in Boston College's 2817 win over Virginia. After a 3010 loss to third-ranked Virginia Tech, coach Tom O'Brien finally went to Ryan for good in the 4th Quarter of the next game against North Carolina. In ten games (five starts), he completed 121 of 195 passes for 1,514 yards. He had eight touchdowns and five interceptions. He also had five rushing touchdowns and 94 yards. He started his first bowl game in the MPC Computers Bowl versus Boise State. He completed 19 of 36 passes for 256 yards and a career-best three touchdowns.[9]
2006 season
Ryan started 11 of 12 games. He completed 243 of 398 passes for 2,700 yards, 14 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He also ran for three touchdowns. He was All-ACC first-team and led the ACC in total offense (242.2 yards per game) and in passing yards (245.5 yards per game). He was named ACC Offensive Back of the week 3 times. He set career highs in completions (32 vs. Central Michigan) and passing yards (356 vs. Brigham Young). He led the team to a 9-3 record including double overtime wins versus Clemson and Brigham Young. He led the Eagles to a close 25-24 victory on December 26, 2006 in the Meineke Car Care Bowl against Navy in Charlotte, North Carolina. In the season opener against Central Michigan, Ryan sprained his ankle. Against Virginia Tech, Ryan broke his foot on the same leg. Despite these injuries, Ryan only missed one game (against Buffalo).[10] His 57 pass attempts in the 2006 Wake Forest game tied Shawn Halloran vs. Syracuse Orange in 1985 and Frank Harris vs. Army in 1968 for the BC record his 40 pass completions in the 2006 Wake Forest game broke the old school record of 37 by Frank Harris in the 1968 Army clash.
2007 season
Before the season started Ryan was named to the preseason All-ACC team. Against Wake Forest, he completed 32 of 52 passes for 408 yards and 5 touchdowns. Boston College also hired a new coach: Jeff Jagodzinski, a longtime NFL assistant.[11] He continued his hot streak versus Georgia Tech, going 30-44 with 1 TD and passing for a career-high 435 yards against the staunch Tech defense en route to a convincing 24-10 road victory. After this game, Ryan was suggested as a potential Heisman Trophy contender. Battling Virginia Tech through bad weather in Blacksburg, Virginia, Ryan led an amazing comeback for the Boston College Eagles, passing for two touchdowns with less than 3 minutes to play on October 25, 2007, including the game-winner with 11 seconds left to Andre Callender.[12][13] However, Matt Ryan's chances to win the Heisman fell sharply after he threw three interceptions in a 27-17 loss to Florida State, an unranked team that had six wins and three losses. However with a strong performance against Clemson[14] his chances were raised substantially. Despite 2 consecutive ACC losses, Ryan and the Eagles found themselves with a trip to the conference championship on the line. Down 10-3 in the third quarter, he led the offense on a game-tying drive, hitting on key passes to Rich Gunnell,Andre Callender and Ryan Purvis , landing the Eagles at the Clemson 2 early in the fourth.James McCluskey finished the job from there, running it in to even the score at 10-apiece. Shortly thereafter, a Clemson turnover resulted in a BC field goal and a 13-10 lead for the maroon and gold . On November 24, against ACC rival Miami,[15] Ryan surpassed Doug Flutie for the most passing touchdowns in a single season by an Eagle QB with 28 TD's, ultimately ending the season with 31. Despite these records, he struggled with throwing interceptions throughout the year, and finished with 19 (2nd most among college quarterbacks).His five touchdown passes in the 2007 Wake Forest game are one shy of the school record of six, held by Doug Flutie in 1984 vs North Carolina. For the maroon and gold, it was their first 10-win regular season since 1940 and the first time they had achieved back-to-back 10-overall-win seasons in program history. He led the Eagles to extend the nation's longest bowl winning streak to eight with a 24-21 victory over Michigan State Spartans in the Champs Sports Bowl on December 28, Ryan threw three touchdown passes, two to Rich Gunnell and one to Jon Loyte .[16] Matt Ryan was awarded the 2007 Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, given annually in the United States to the Nation's most outstanding college football senior quarterback , the other finalists for the 2007 award were Hawaii's Colt Brennan, Louisville's Brian Brohm , Oregon's Dennis Dixon and Kentucky's Andre Woodson ( all of whom were drafted at the 2008 NFL Draft ) He was selected to play in the 2008 Senior Bowl. He also won the 2007 Manning Award awarded to the nation's top quarterback , beating out eventual Heisman winner Tim Tebow and eight other finalists for this year's award: Erik Ainge (Tennessee), Sam Bradford (Oklahoma), Colt Brennan (Hawaii), Chase Daniel (Missouri), Dennis Dixon (Oregon), Graham Harrell (Texas Tech), Pat White (West Virginia) and Andre' Woodson (Kentucky). He also he was named "Eagle of the Year" alongside BC's first ever individual champion Kasey Hill, in November, he was asked to talk at the Boston College Multi-Cultural Thanksgiving celebration where he spoke of family, integrity and devotion. He is featured as the cover athlete for the PS3 version of NCAA Football 09[17]

#15 Joe Flacco, Delaware (Div I-AA, Colonial)

In 2003, Flacco was redshirted as a freshman for a team that went 8-5.
In 2004, he was the backup quarterback finding limited playing time behind starter Tyler Palko. He only saw action in three games against Ohio University, University of Nebraska, and the University of South Florida. He finished the season with one completion for 11 yards.
After the 2004 season, Flacco transferred to the University of Delaware. He was not awarded the one-time transfer exception from the University of Pittsburgh, so he was not eligible to receive a scholarship and participate in Delaware's 2005 season.
Flacco saw his first full-time action during the 2006 season. He put up good numbers for the Fightin' Blue Hens with nearly 3,000 yards, and 18 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. Delaware struggled to a 56 record, missing the playoffs.
In the 2007 season, Flacco led his team to an 83 regular season record while compiling over 3,300 yards, 18 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. He was considered one of college football's most accurate passers in 2007. [3][unreliable source?] Arguably his best game came against Division 1-A Navy where he threw for 434 yards and four touchdowns. Flacco showed another solid performance in the first-ever meeting against the Delaware State Hornets in the first round of the playoffs. Behind Omar Cuff's record-setting day, Flacco threw efficiently for 189 yards and a touchdown, leading the Blue Hens to an easy 447 victory. Flacco continued Delaware's playoff run by upsetting the Northern Iowa Panthers 3927 in the FCS quarterfinals and upsetting the Southern Illinois Salukis 2017 the next weekend in the semifinals. Flacco threw for over 200 yards and two touchdowns against both the Panthers and Salukis,[4] but went on to lose in the championship game to the Appalachian State Mountaineers 4921.
Flacco set 20 school records during his career at Delaware.[5]

#16 Josh Freeman, Kansas State, (Big 12)

Freeman originally committed to the University of Nebraska to play for former head coach Bill Callahan, but the newly hired head coach at Kansas State, Ron Prince, convinced Freeman to enroll at Kansas State instead.
As a freshman in 2006, Freeman appeared in 11 of 13 games that season, including starts in the final eight contests of 2006. He took over at quarterback during the second half at Baylor and directed the Kansas State offense the rest of the season. He passed for a Kansas State freshman record 1,780 yards on 140-of-270 passing (52%). He became the first true freshman to start a game at Kansas State since 1976. Additionally, he had consecutive 250+ yard passing games against Colorado and Texas, marking the first time a Kansas State quarterback had done so since Michael Bishop in 1998. He attempted a Kansas State freshman-record 47 passes against Nebraska, completing 23 for 272 yards. He earned his first career start against Oklahoma State and led the Wildcats to a comeback win. He finished the game 10-for-15 passing for 177 yards and ran for a game-winning 21-yard touchdown with 1:11 to go in the game. In 2007, he set new single-season school records for pass attempts, completions and yards after throwing for 3,353 yards and 18 touchdowns on 316-of-499 passing. In 2008, Freeman was 224 of 382 passing for 2,945 yards and 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions this season for a passer rating of 132.9. The 14 rushing touchdowns were the fourth-most in a single season by a Wildcat quarterback.[2]
In his three year collegiate career, Freeman completed 680 passes for 8,078 yards and 44 touchdowns and 34 interceptions in 35 career games. He accumulated a school-record 8,427 total yards and joined Ell Roberson as the only quarterbacks in Kansas State history to score at least 60 touchdowns.

#17 Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, (Big 12)

Freshman season
In 2006, Oklahoma's starting quarterback Rhett Bomar, then a sophomore, was dismissed from the team for violating NCAA rules. Paul Thompson, a senior quarterback-turned-wide receiver, converted back to quarterback and led the 2006 Oklahoma Sooners football team to win the Big 12 Championship Game. His departure left a void at the quarterback position at Oklahoma. Six players on the roster tried out for the starting position during the following off-season, including three walk-on quarterbacks,[6] true freshman Keith Nichol (a 4-star recruit and 6th-ranked dual-threat quarterback in the 2007 recruiting class, who later transferred to Michigan State University), junior Joey Halzle (the only one with game experience), and Bradford, a redshirt freshman. On August 21, 2007, Bradford won the starting quarterback role for the 2007 team.[7]
In his first game for the Sooners, against the University of North Texas, Bradford completed 21 of 23 attempts for 363 yards and three touchdowns in a little over two quarters, breaking the school record for passing yards in a half, held by his quarterback coach Josh Heupel, with 350.[8] The very next game, Bradford broke Heisman Trophy winner Jason White's school record for most consecutive pass completions with 22 (18 came in the first half and four at the start of the second).[9]
In the second week of the 2007 season, Bradford was named the national offensive player of the week by the Walter Camp Foundation[10] after tying the school record for most touchdown passes in a game with five.[11] Having thrown 25 touchdowns through his first nine games, Bradford was on pace to break the NCAA freshman record of 29 touchdowns set by David Neill in 1998 and tied by Colt McCoy in 2006.
In the November 17, 2007 game against Texas Tech, Bradford suffered a concussion of unknown severity. He was removed from the game and replaced by back-up quarterback Joey Halzle. The Sooners lost the game, 2734. [12] Bradford was able to play in the Bedlam game against Oklahoma State on November 24. [13][14]
During the November 24, 2007 game against the Oklahoma State Cowboys, Bradford broke the NCAA freshman record of 29 touchdowns by passing his 30th touchdown to Joe Jon Finley during the second quarter.[15] At the Missouri Tigers game, Bradford threw for 209 yards and 0 interceptions. He was 1826 and threw for two touchdowns.
The Sooners won the Big 12 Championship after defeating Missouri for the second time in a season. The Sooners played the West Virginia Mountaineers in the Fiesta Bowl on January 2, 2008 and lost 4828. It was Bradford's first BCS bowl game as a starter.
Sophomore season
In week 8 of the following season against Kansas, Bradford surpassed quarterback coach Josh Heupel's school record for passing yards in a single game with 468 yards. Bradford led the Sooners to their third straight Big 12 Championship and defeated Missouri 6221. In the process, the Sooners broke Hawaii's 2006 record for the most points in a single season with 702 points. Also, the Sooners were the first team in NCAA history who had scored 60 or more points in five straight games. Oklahoma finished the 2008 regular season with a 121 record, ranking #2 in the AP Poll and #1 in the BCS Standings. The Sooners earned a trip to play Florida at the 2009 BCS National Championship Game.
After the regular season, Bradford captured the Davey O'Brien Award[16] and the Heisman Trophy.[17][18] He is the second sophomore, after 2007 winner Tim Tebow of the University of Florida, to receive the Heisman; he also became the fifth University of Oklahoma player, as well as the first person of Native American descent since Jim Plunkett in 1970, to capture the trophy.[19] Bradford received 1,726 total points while the other finalists, Colt McCoy, of the University of Texas, and Tim Tebow, received 1,604 and 1,575, respectively. Tebow, however, collected more first-place votes, 309, while Bradford got 300. Bradford got the most points thanks to the help of his 315 second-place votes. A total of 926 voters participated in the balloting.[20] When combined with Blake Griffin's Naismith Award, Oklahoma became the first school to have a winner in both top basketball and football individual awards in the same year. Bradford was also voted the Associated Press College Football Player of the Year. Bradford received 27 votes, again beating McCoy (17 votes) and Tim Tebow (16 votes).[22] Bradford is the third Oklahoma Sooner to win the award, joining Josh Heupel (2000) and Jason White (2003). Heupel and White were also quarterbacks, with Heupel being the current quarterbacks coach for Oklahoma.
Bradford faced Florida, led by Tebow, in the 2009 BCS National Championship Game.[23] He threw 26-of-41 passes for 256 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. Florida ended up beating Oklahoma 2414.[24]
Junior season
Bradford announced that he would forgo the 2009 NFL Draft to return to Oklahoma for his junior season.[25] In the Sooners' first game of the season (against Brigham Young), Bradford suffered a 3rd degree AC joint sprain one play after becoming Oklahoma's all-time passing leader. Playing without Bradford for the second half of the game, Oklahoma went on to lose 1314. Bradford was originally scheduled to return in about three to six weeks,[26] but head coach Bob Stoops initially refused to either confirm or deny that timetable.[27] After missing three weeks, Bradford returned to the field during the Baylor game, and completed 27-of-49 passes for 389 yards and one touchdown, leading the Sooners to a 337 victory.[28] Bradford re-injured his right shoulder on October 17, 2009 in the Red River Rivalry against Texas on the second drive of the game. It was later announced that he would undergo season-ending shoulder surgery and enter the 2010 NFL Draft.[29]
Awards and honors
  2007 Sporting News Freshman of the Year[30]
  2007 Second-team All-American by Sporting News[30]
  2007 Honorable mention All-American by Pro Football Weekly[31] College Football News,[32] and Sports Illustrated[33]
  2007 All-Big 12 honorable mention by the league's coaches[34]
  2007 All-Big 12 Academic Team[35]
  2008 Second-team Academic All-American by ESPN The Magazine[36]
  2008 All-Big 12 Academic Team[37]
  2008 Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year as named by the league's coaches, who also selected him to the All-Big 12 first team[38]
I agree that it is much more difficult to find a non-first round franchise QB than most people think. I made a mistake and placed Brees as a first rounder, but he was the first selected in the second round....

So there were:
16 out of 37 first rounders that became franchise QB's: 43%
8 out of 162 that became franchise QB's outside the 1st round: 5%

2nd Round - 32 Overall - Drew Brees Purdue
3rd Round - 90 Overall - Matt Schaub Falcons Virginia
4th Round - 108 Overall - David Garrard Jaguars East Carolina
6th Round - 168 Overall - Marc Bulger Saints West Virginia
6th Round - 187 Overall - Matt Hasselbeck Packers Boston College
6th Round - 199 Overall - Tom Brady Patriots Michigan
7th Round - 230 Overall - Matt Cassel Patriots USC
Undrafted - Tony Romo

I wonder what the %'s are for other positions... Remember Harbaugh had Romo (undrafted) and Garrard (4th rd) rated high and Carr (1st rd) rated low so he seems to have a knack for selecting QB's... not only that... Harbaugh is one of the few that can develop QB's. I think there are only a few teams that can develop QB's. Most draftees that succeed are relatively NFL ready (Of course it usually takes a few years for most QB's in the league to adjust to the NFL level)... a few that had limited production in college such as Hasselbeck, Cassel, had to develop...
Here are my initial filters for analyzing QB's:

My first filter is production and game experience...the more productive you are in college, the more likely you will be productive in the NFL. You also need to have played a certain amount of games to have experience at a high level of competition. Most likely you've beaten out competition to be a multi-year starter. Only 21% of the franchise QB's threw for less than 7,000 yds in college. Three of those I consider developed (Cassel, Hasselbeck, Vick.. Vick was always a good football player with Atlanta, but he can now be considered a elite franchise QB in Philly.)
Rodgers and Brady are stars, but they only started two years in college. However they had other great qualities: Played in major conference, pro-style offense, good completion %, good QB rating. If you exclude the projects, only these two (Brady,Rodgers) of 21 (9.5%) did not pass over 7,000 yards.

Yards Name
14496 Steve McNair
13484 Philip Rivers
13423 Chad Pennington
11792 Drew Brees
11668 Carson Palmer
11412 Dante Culpepper
11201 Peyton Manning
10829 Ben Roethlisberger
10119 Eli Manning
9313 Matt Ryan
9029 David Garrard
8697 Jay Cutler
8403 Sam Bradford
8389 Donovan McNabb
8212 Tony Romo
8153 Marc Bulger
8078 Josh Freeman
7502 Matt Shaub
7046 Joe Flacco
5469 Aaron Rodgers
5351 Tom Brady
4548 Matt Hasselbeck
3074 Michael Vick
192 Matt Cassel

8745.0 Average

My second filter is accuracy. The metric I will use for this is completion %. 8 out of 24 (33.3%) franchise QB's had a completion rate less than 60%. Two (again Hasselbeck and Vick) with low completion rating I consider to be projects. Note: Vick only threw for above 60% once in Atlanta.) Of the rest:
"Air" McNair was a prolific passer and #1 in yds passed in this list.
Palmer, Freeman, McNabb, Cutler all played for major conferences in pro-style offenses.
Garrard played in a small conference, but pro-style.

Comp. % Name
67.6% Sam Bradford
67.0% Matt Shaub
65.5% Ben Roethlisberger
65.5% Chad Pennington
63.9% Dante Culpepper
63.8% Aaron Rodgers
63.5% Philip Rivers
63.3% Joe Flacco
62.5% Peyton Manning
62.3% Tom Brady
62.1% Tony Romo
61.6% Marc Bulger
61.5% Drew Brees
60.8% Eli Manning
60.6% Matt Cassel
60.0% Matt Ryan
59.1% Carson Palmer
59.1% Josh Freeman
58.4% Donovan McNabb
57.2% Jay Cutler
57.0% David Garrard
56.5% Michael Vick
55.6% Matt Hasselbeck
55.2% Steve McNair

61.2% Average

The next filter I have is QB rating which takes into consideration completion %, but also TD's and Int's as well as yards per attempt. I used the NFL QB rating for this analysis and made the cutoff a rating of 90. (Only 33% of this list had a QB rating under 90. If you remove Hasselbeck and Cassel, only 27% of this list had a QB rating under 90.)
Brees, Palmer, Cutler, Ryan, Freeman all played for major conferences in pro-style offenses.
Garrard played in a small conference, but pro-style.

Rating Name
123.0 Sam Bradford
104.3 Tony Romo
103.8 Donovan McNabb
103.3 Chad Pennington
102.9 Aaron Rodgers
101.9 Ben Roethlisberger
99.5 Peyton Manning
98.1 Philip Rivers
97.1 Dante Culpepper
96.8 Michael Vick
94.5 Matt Shaub
93.8 Joe Flacco
93.2 Steve McNair
92.8 Eli Manning
92.0 Marc Bulger
90.6 Tom Brady
89.8 Drew Brees
85.2 Carson Palmer
84.9 David Garrard
83.3 Matt Ryan
82.7 Jay Cutler
81.0 Josh Freeman
70.5 Matt Hasselbeck
64.2 Matt Cassel

92.9 Average

The next filter I have is college competition level (ie. division/conference). Suprisingly there are 3 of 24 QB's (12.5%) that are from Division II. 30% of the QB's are from a non-major conference. However most are from major conferences. I can weight these conferences by power rankings, but I'll do that later.
McNair, Pennington, Culpepper, and Roethlisberger put up prolific passings yards (10,000+). Pennington & Culpepper played pro-style; Roethlisberger and Flacco played shotgun.
Romo and McNair won the Walter Payton Award (Heisman of Div II)

Division Name
ACC Philip Rivers
ACC Michael Vick
ACC Matt Shaub
ACC Matt Ryan
ACC Matt Hasselbeck
Big 10 Tom Brady
Big 10 Drew Brees
Big 12 Sam Bradford
Big 12 Josh Freeman
Big East Donovan McNabb
Big East Marc Bulger
Pac 10 Aaron Rodgers
Pac 10 Carson Palmer
Pac 10 Matt Cassel
SEC Peyton Manning
SEC Eli Manning
SEC Jay Cutler
Conf USA Chad Pennington
Conf USA Dante Culpepper
Conf USA David Garrard
MAC Ben Roethlisberger
Div II Tony Romo
Div II Joe Flacco
Div II Steve McNair

My last filter for now is the system of offense. I won't get into the details of spread/option/'Air Raid'/pro-style, but just distinguish QB's that are used to dropping back vs those that use shotgun. Those with hundreds of repetitions dropping back from center in real game situations should have a huge advantage over those that don't. DB stands for drop-back and SG for shotgun. I have limited research time so this is the best I could come up with in regards to DB vs SG. Only 3 of the 24 (12.5%) primarily used shotgun. 4 of 24 (16.7%) used a heavy dose of shotgun. The rest (71%) of QB's primarily dropped-back:

DB Matt Shaub
DB Matt Ryan
DB Matt Hasselbeck
DB Tom Brady
DB Josh Freeman
DB Marc Bulger
DB Aaron Rodgers
DB Carson Palmer
DB Matt Cassel
DB Peyton Manning
DB Eli Manning
DB Jay Cutler
DB Chad Pennington
DB Dante Culpepper
DB David Garrard
DB Tony Romo
DB/SG Philip Rivers
DB/SG Michael Vick
DB/SG Donovan McNabb
DB/SG Steve McNair
SG Sam Bradford
SG Drew Brees
SG Joe Flacco
SG Ben Roethlisberger

I'm going to weight all these categories in a formula and apply these to the upcoming prospects to get a quantitative probability of success. I think this could serve as a good foundation for analysis. One can later complement this with a qualitative analysis and consider intangibles. The quantitative analysis seems to give very good guidelines for success in finding modern day franchise QB's.

Note: I want to mention Joe Montana, Dan Marino, Brett Favre, Dan Fouts, Warren Moon would not fare well in this quantitative analysis. It's surprising that all these older NFL stars had unimpressive college statistics (Montana had a QB rating of 74.7, Favre 75.9, Marino 78.7)... Montana had as many INT's as TD's at Notre Dame. Of course Montana was the Comeback Kid though.) Aikman, Elway, Young did have good ratings though. I wonder if there is any reason for this. Maybe efficiency was less emphasized in previous times... more modern QB's have much better passer ratings than the stars of the past... maybe QB's were more likely to sling the ball and not worry too much about interceptions in the past...... Not sure...

No comments:

Post a Comment