tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-77785641583395827712024-03-08T10:19:02.735-08:00Moneyballin' in the NFLGive me the right statistics and info on a player and I don't even need to watch film... moneyballerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17661716733527756356noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778564158339582771.post-68660308324890098602013-04-27T12:32:00.001-07:002013-04-27T12:32:06.334-07:00 49ers or some team pick up Poyer and turn him into safety... just a steal right now.. Geez.. guy is dropping and I'm sure it's because his poor
measurables.... He's probably one of the top off coverage corners and
you can turn him into a FS too...<br />
<br />
For safeties, the main measurables are the 40 yd and 3-cone drill in
which Poyer does pretty will in that class......... he just sucks at
explosion drills. (30.5 vert)... a steal at this stage...
moneyballerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17661716733527756356noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778564158339582771.post-84754162062560752412013-04-25T16:23:00.001-07:002013-04-25T16:28:20.063-07:00Moneyballer Majestic Mock for Building a Dynasty! I created a model to rank players by position so I might as well have
fun with it. The 49ers management will be looking and choosing players
using their own criteria and I predicted: Cyprien, Tank Carradine,
Mathieu (hopefully), Kelce, Quessenberry in that order. They also aren't
rebuilding so their strategy should be different anyways. <br />
<br />
Since the 49ers have so many draft choices, it is more fun to try to
build a whole team with their picks. 76% of NFL stars will be drafted in
the first 75 picks according to the numbers I read from Draft Metrics
so after that you shouldn't expect too many stars. I wish I had more
time to look for solid late round sleepers like in previous years, but
I'll just add some high risk flyers in the later rounds in this mock and
guys that are just intriguing. I'm going to also fill out the UDFA list
later on. This list is all about finding value in the right rounds, but
it's hard to say who will be available so I'm making my best guess for
now. Here is the list:<br />
<br />
1 31 31 Matt Elam S (#1 in my Safety ranking - playmaker from a top SEC defense.. still a Junior)<br />
<br />
2 2 34 Kawann Short 3-4 DE (#3 in my DT ranking... captain of team..
team defense was poor, but Short was maybe the most productive DT in
this year's class.. )<br />
<br />
2 29 61 Tyrann Mathieu CB (#2 corner in
my CB ranking after DJ Hayden. One of the biggest playmakers in the
draft if he gets back to form. )<br />
<br />
3 12 74 Stedman Bailey WR(#1
receiver in my WR ranking and is great value... not ranked high, but
1600yds & 25 TD's as a Junior? )<br />
<br />
3 31 93 Marcus Lattimore
RB (#3 in my RB ranking and extremely productive when healthy..TD
scorer.. and one of nation's top recruit out of high school)<br />
<br />
4
31 128 Joseph Fauria TE- (#4 in my TE ranking.. in a very deep TE class)
fantastic production.. red zone threat... used more as receiver.. very
good measurables<br />
<br />
4 34 131 William Gholston 3-4 DE - measurables
poor..but 10 passes defended? good stats in one of top defenses in the
nation? Junior with room to develop..<br />
<br />
5 24 157 Kwame Geathers
NT - huge guy to plug middle... back up to good NT so didn't have
opportunity to showcase abilities...SEC<br />
<br />
6 5 173 Landry Jones QB 16,000 yds passing in Big 12.. great value.. poor measurables..can build around a guy like this<br />
<br />
6 12 180 Alex Hurst (former LSU) OT - what is the story with this guy? former SEC starter at LT I think... need an LT<br />
<br />
7 31 237 Marquess Wilson (former Wash St) WR- huge production..
character issue, but could understand why he left. situation.. more
worried about hands if he<br />
re-dedicates himself to football.<br />
<br />
7 40 246 Phillip Steward Houston, OLB- extremely productive small school player<br />
<br />
7 46 252 Travis Johnson SJSU, OLB- productive and always improving year over year... measurables poor & small school player<br />
<br />
UDFA Trey Wilson Vanderbilt, CB<br />
OL,ILB,FB, Special Teams to be determined. You can find a lot of OL
talent in UDFA. I'll look for 4yr starters with poor measurables in good offenses as a start.<br />
<br />
What would your mock be if the 49ers were
rebuilding their dynasty, you were GM and needed to fill up the roster
with talent? Remember it would be good to be somewhat realistic about
where players will go, but have fun!moneyballerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17661716733527756356noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778564158339582771.post-76617367139787703992013-04-25T14:19:00.001-07:002013-04-25T16:02:00.078-07:00Final Prediction: 49ers First 5 Picks There usually is around 13 - 16 corners taken in the first 74 picks
so I doubt Tyrann lasts past much beyond 61. Might even have to trade
up a little or he might already be off the table. Here is my
prediction:<br />
<br />
1-31) Jonathan Cyprien, FIU FS<br />
2-34) Tank Carradine, Florida St, DE<br />
2-61) Tyrann Mathieu LSU, CB<br />
3-74) Travis Kelce - Cincinnati, TE<br />
3-93) David Quessenberry, SJSU - OT<br />
<br />
I would rather have Elam or Phillip Thomas at safety because they rate higher on the model. Hesitant about a small
school safety despite hearing he impressed at the Senior Bowl. Wouldn't
be too excited about this draft other than Mathieu and Kelce if they
actually go for them. Cyprien and Tank can be solid contributers and
all the players will be coached up. Hopefully they surprise me... The
9ers do a good job coaching up. We'll see what happens. Should be fun
regardless.
moneyballerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17661716733527756356noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778564158339582771.post-68247303232476291592013-04-25T12:30:00.001-07:002013-04-25T12:30:59.990-07:00Adding DJ Hayden puts him #1 on CB rankings...So I just had time to evaluate DJ Hayden, because I started with mocks as of two weeks ago and he wasn't on the list. It's rare to have someone move up that fast and so I didn't think much of putting him in the model, but he rates out at 2.17, just barely beating the Honeybadger for the #1 CB in the list. moneyballerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17661716733527756356noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778564158339582771.post-88938701104262028732013-04-25T00:39:00.003-07:002013-04-25T00:40:07.961-07:00Final Position Ranking Short List - 4/24/2013This is an objective ranking of players based on productivity and measurables. <br />
<br />
QB<br />
1. Geno Smith, West Virginia 2.53<br />
2. Matt Barkley, USC 1.93<br />
3. Landry Jones, Oklahoma 1.79<br />
4. EJ Manuel, Florida St 1.71<br />
5. Tyler Wilson, Arkansas 1.44<br />
6. *Tyler Bray, Tennessee 1.42<br />
7. Ryan Nassib, Syracuse 1.05<br />
8. Zac Dysart, Miami (OH) 0.97 <br />
9. Mike Glennon, NC State 0.88<br />
10. Matt Scott, Arizona 0.79<br />
<br />
RB<br />
1.*Eddie Lacy, Alabama 2.18<br />
2. Kenjon Barner, Oregon 1.61<br />
3. Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina 1.56<br />
4. Christine Michael, Texas A&M 1.53<br />
5. *Gio Bernard, North Carolina 1.50<br />
6. Montee Ball, Wisconsin 1.37<br />
7. Joseph Randle, Oklahoma St. 1.16<br />
8. Mike Gillislee, Florida 1.09<br />
9. Andre Ellington, Clemson 0.93<br />
10. *Le'Veon Bell, Michigan St. 0.86<br />
11. Johnathan Franklin, UCLA 0.78<br />
12. Stepfan Taylor, Stanford 0.71 <br />
<br />
WR<br />
1. * Stedman Bailey, West Virginia 2.43<br />
2. * Justin Hunter, Tennessee 2.16<br />
3. Terrance Williams, Baylor 2.15<br />
4. Da'Rick Rogers, (former Tennessee), 2.05<br />
5. *De'Andre Hopkins, Clemson, 1.88<br />
6. *Robert Woods, USC 1.74 <br />
7. *Cordarelle Patterson, Tennessee 1.66<br />
8. Quinton Patton, Lousiana Tech 1.58<br />
9. Tavon Austin, West Virginia 1.57<br />
10. Keenan Allen, California 1.43<br />
11. Aaron Dobson, Marshall 1.39<br />
12. Markus Wheaton, Oregon St, 1.30<br />
<br />
TE<br />
1. *Tyler Eifert , Notre Dame 2.86<br />
2. *Zach Ertz, Stanford 2.74<br />
3. Travis Kelce, Cincinnati 2.64<br />
4. Joseph Fauria, UCLA 2.55<br />
5. *Gavin Escobar, SDSU 2.32<br />
6. Mychal Rivera, Tennessee 2.02<br />
7. Ryan Otten, SJSU 1.93<br />
8. Vance McDonald, Rice 1.82<br />
9. *Dion Sims, Michigan St 1.82<br />
10. *Jordan Reed, Florida 1.81<br />
11. Levine Toilolo, Stanford 1.43<br />
12. Chris Gragg, Arkansas 1.42<br />
13. Nick Kasa , Colorado 1.18<br />
<br />
CB<br />
1. *Tyrann Mathieu 2.16<br />
2. *Dee Milliner 2.11<br />
3. *Xavier Rhodes 2.10<br />
4. Desmond Trufant 2.04<br />
5. Darius Slay 2.00<br />
6. Jordan Poyer 1.94<br />
7. *David Amerson 1.93<br />
8. Logan Ryan 1.91<br />
9. Johnthan Banks 1.88<br />
10. Robert Alford 1.86<br />
11. Jamar Taylor 1.85<br />
12. Blidi Wreh-Wilson 1.83<br />
<br />
S<br />
1. *Matt Elam, Florida 2.38<br />
2. Phillip Thomas, Fresno St 2.33<br />
3. Bacarri Rambo, Georgia 2.29<br />
4. Shawn Williams, Georgia 2.00<br />
5. Kenny Vaccaro, Texas 1.96<br />
6. D.J. Swearinger, South Carolina 1.94<br />
7. *Eric Reid, LSU 1.91<br />
8. TJ McDonald, USC 1.89<br />
9. Jonathan Cyprien FIU 1.71<br />
10. Shamarko Thomas Syracuse, 1.66<br />
11. *Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma, 1.53<br />
12. JJ Wilcox Georgia Southern, 1.27<br />
<br />
DT<br />
1. *Sharrif Floyd, Florida 1.84<br />
2. *Sheldon Richardson, Missouri 1.82<br />
3. Kawann Short, Purdue 1.78<br />
4. *Bennie Logan, LSU 1.73<br />
5. Sylvester Williams, North Carolina 1.60<br />
6. Jesse Williams, Alabama 1.59<br />
7. Brandon Williams, Missouri Southern State 1.51<br />
8. Star Lotulelei, Utah 1.45<br />
9. John Jenkins, Georgia 1.43<br />
10.*Johnathan Hankins, Ohio St.1.37<br />
<br />
DE<br />
1. Ziggy Anash, BYU 2.21<br />
2. *Damontre Moore, Texas A&M 2.12<br />
3. Margus Hunt, SMU 2.09 (5T)<br />
4. *Bjoern Werner, Florida St 1.98<br />
5. Tank Carradine, Florida St 1.74 (5T)<br />
6. *Sam Montgomery, LSU 1.69<br />
7. *William Gholston, Michigan St 1.68 (5T)<br />
8. *Corey Lemonier, Auburn 1.67<br />
9. Alex Okafor, Texas 1.62<br />
10. Datone Jones, UCLA 1.62 (5T)<br />
11. Michael Buchanan, Illinois, 1.48<br />
12. Malliciah Goodman, Clemson 1.29 (5T)<br />
<br />
OLB<br />
1 Jamie Collins, Southern Mississippi 2.37 <br />
2 *Jarvis Jones, Georgia 2.25 <br />
3 *Barkevious Mingo, LSU 2.14 <br />
4 Sio Moore, UConn 2.10<br />
5 Khaseem Greene, Rutgers 2.09<br />
6 Zavier Gooden, Missouri 2.08<br />
7 John Simon, Ohio St. 1.93<br />
8 Trevardo Williams, UConn 1.93<br />
8 Gerald Hodges, Penn St. 1.84<br />
9 Arthur Brown, Kansas State 1.80<br />
10 Dion Jordan, Oregon 1.77<br />
11 Phillip Steward, Houston 1.64<br />
12 Brandon Jenkins, Florida State 1.50 <br />
13 Cornelius Washington, Georgia 1.56<br />
<br />
Note: Offensive Line, FB, ILB not included. Points associated with players are to be compared within a position category, NOT between different positions. QB,RB,WR,TE have not changed from previous posts. CB,S,DT,DE,OLB has changed to reflect a 60/40 weighting in favor of productivity vs measurables. (Previously 75/25) Methodology did not change and is explained for each position in previous posts. It would make sense to make adjustments based on criteria not used (ie. special teams skills for WRs, blocking ability for TEs, injury history) and also qualitative evaluation of character, leadership, work ethic etc. <br />
<br />
Hope you like it and keep moneyballin' y'all!<br />
<br />
<br />moneyballerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17661716733527756356noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778564158339582771.post-42576502010684383282013-04-24T23:31:00.000-07:002013-04-25T01:14:35.217-07:00Top Quarterback Short List - 4/24/13Here is the short list for QB's. I used the following stats, metrics, and weightings:<br />
Career QB Rating (using NFL formula) 55%<br />
Completion % (accuracy) 15%<br />
Career Yds (experience) 15%<br />
Conference (competition level) 15%<br />
<br />
1. Geno Smith, West Virginia 2.53<br />
2. Matt Barkley, USC 1.93 <br />
3. Landry Jones, Oklahoma 1.79<br />
4. EJ Manuel, Florida St 1.71<br />
5. Tyler Wilson, Arkansas 1.44<br />
6. Tyler Bray, Tennessee 1.42<br />
7. Ryan Nassib, Syracuse 1.05<br />
8. Zac Dysart, Miami (OH) 0.97 <br />
9. Mike Glennon, NC State 0.88<br />
10. Matt Scott, Arizona 0.79<br />
<br />
I used a pretty basic formula and didn't have much time to develop it further. It seems to work well in capturing much of what I want so I say good enough! <br />
<br />
<br />
This is taken from a series of posts I made in the 49erswebzone.com forum from 3/4/2011 to 3/14/11. Based on this I'm going to narrow the QB short list to just three. QB is a difficult position to analyze so a couple years ago I made an attempt, but never finished. The following is the analysis I started on:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.drafthistory.com/positions/qb.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.drafthistory.com/positions/qb.html</a> <br />
<br />
This is a great website to look at past drafts by position... since the
QB position is on everyone's mind I'll start the discussion going with
QB's.<br />
<br />
It seems there are only couple strong starting QB's drafted each year.
Taking a quick look at the past 16 drafts here is my list of strong
starters: (I did this quick so please feel free to make adjustments)<br />
<br />
Overall Pick #<br />
<br />
<b>1995 </b><br />
3 *Steve McNair Oilers Alcorn State<br />
5 Kerry Collins Panthers Penn State<br />
<br />
<b>1996 </b><br />
None <br />
<br />
<b>1997 </b><br />
42 Jake Plummer Cardinals Arizona State<br />
<br />
<b>1998 </b><br />
1 *Peyton Manning Colts Tennessee<br />
91 Brian Griese Broncos Michigan<br />
187 *Matt Hasselbeck Packers Boston College<br />
<br />
<b>1999 </b><br />
2 *Donovan McNabb Eagles Syracuse<br />
11 *Daunte Culpepper Vikings Central Florida<br />
131 Aaron Brooks Packers Virginia<br />
<br />
<b>2000 </b><br />
18 *Chad Pennington Jets Marshall<br />
168 *Marc Bulger Saints West Virginia<br />
199 *Tom Brady Patriots Michigan<br />
<br />
<b>2001 </b><br />
1 *Michael Vick Falcons Virginia Tech<br />
32 *Drew Brees Chargers Purdue<br />
<br />
<b>2002 </b><br />
108 *David Garrard Jaguars East Carolina<br />
<br />
<b>2003 </b><br />
1 *Carson Palmer Bengals USC<br />
<br />
<b>2004</b> <br />
1 *Eli Manning Chargers Mississippi<br />
4 *Philip Rivers Giants North Carolina State<br />
11 *Ben Roethlisberger Steelers Miami (OH)<br />
90 *Matt Schaub Falcons Virginia<br />
<br />
<b>2005</b><br />
24 *Aaron Rodgers Packers California<br />
106 Kyle Orton Bears Purdue<br />
230 *Matt Cassel Patriots USC<br />
<br />
<b>2006 </b><br />
<i>3 Vince Young Titans Texas</i><br />
11 *Jay Cutler Broncos Vanderbilt<br />
<br />
<b>2007 </b><br />
<i>36 Kevin Kolb Eagles Houston</i><br />
<br />
<b>2008 </b><br />
3 *Matt Ryan Falcons Boston College<br />
18 *Joe Flacco Ravens Delaware<br />
<br />
<b>2009 </b><br />
<i>1 Matthew Stafford Lions Georgia</i><br />
<i>5 Mark Sanchez Jets USC</i><br />
17 *Josh Freeman Buccaneers Kansas State<br />
<br />
<b>2010 </b><br />
1 *Sam Bradford Rams Oklahoma<br />
<i>25 Tim Tebow Broncos Florida </i><br />
<i>85 Colt McCoy Browns Texas</i><br />
<br />
*Franchise QB<br />
Italics: Borderline/unproven/newly drafted<br />
<br />
Notes: <br />
49ers picked Jim Druckenmiller at #26/ first QB taken overall/ 1st Rde in 1997<br />
49ers picked Giovanni Carmazzi at #65/ second QB taken overall/3rd Rd in 2000<br />
Tony Romo was undrafted in 2003<br />
<br />
My conclusion is that franchise QB's are hard to find. It's rare to
have more than a couple franchise QB's in a draft... Most often there is
only ONE and sometimes none. The average # of franchise QB's in a
draft is 1.25 (roughly 20 franchise QB's out of the past 16 drafts.)<br />
<br />
Knowing this, rather than considering more than 4-5 QB's, do you think
there will be any franchise QB's in 2011? It may be better to pick your
top 2 because the rest will probably be nothing special. I'm skeptical
about this class of QB's but I'm going to narrow my prospects to my top
2 or 3. <br />
<br />
Part of my analysis will be:<br />
What are the stats of these QB's? <br />
(QB rating/Completion %/Yds/Games Played)<br />
I like this method as a start: Rule of 26-27-60<br />
<a href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/john_lopez/07/08/qb.rule/index.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/john_lopez/07/08/qb.rule/index.html</a> <br />
<br />
What school/division did they play for?<br />
Stats must be adjusted by level of competition<br />
QB's from smaller schools should be discounted significantly.<br />
<br />
What type of offense did they play in college?<br />
People who play in gimmick offenses should be deeply discounted<br />
<br />
What intangibles do they have?<br />
Like Eli Manning - 'Eli, Ernie Accorsi and Michael Lewis'<br />
<a href="http://robertaconnor.blogspot.com/2008/02/eli-ernie-accorsi-and-michael-lewis.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://robertaconnor.blogspot.com/2008/02/eli-ernie-accorsi-and-michael-lewis.html</a><br />
<br />
(Also as part of the stat analysis it would be nice to have ACE ratings (Adjusted comeback efficiency ratings)<br />
<a href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2010/guest-column-adjusted-comeback-efficiency" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2010/guest-column-adjusted-comeback-efficiency</a><br />
<br />
Special circumstances:<br />
Injury/Terrible coaching/system/o-line/receivers etc.<br />
<br />
<br />
Let me know what you guys think.... I'm going to do this for every
position... and limit the number of potential draftees to get a short
list.<br />
--------------------------------------------<br />
<br />
While analyzing the franchise QB’s that have come out in the past, I
decided to just copy and paste the college bios from Wikipedia. I'll
start with the franchise QB's picked in the 1st round of the draft:<br />
<br />
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#1 <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Steve McNair, Alcorn State
University (Div I-AA)<br />
<br />
1994 Walter Payton Award as the top player in NCAA Division I-AA<br />
McNair played college football for Alcorn State University. In 1992, McNair
threw for 3,541 yards and 29 touchdowns, and ran in for 10 more scores. The
Braves fashioned a record of 74, including a last-second victory in their
rematch with Grambling. In that contest, McNair returned from an injury and
helped Alcorn State, trailing late in the final period, move deep into Tigers'
territory. Then, despite a leg injury, he tucked the ball under his arm and
dove into the end zone for the winning touchdown. The victory over Grambling
helped the Braves qualify for the I-AA playoffs. McNair helped Alcorn State to
another good year in 1993, as the Braves upped their record to 83 while McNair
threw for more than 3,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. He was also named First-Team
All-SWAC for the third year in a row.<br />
In his senior season, McNair gained nearly 6,000 yards rushing and passing,
along with 53 touchdowns. In the process, he surpassed more than a dozen
records and was named an All-American. In addition, McNair won the Walter
Payton Award as the top I-AA player and finished third in the Heisman Trophy
voting behind Rashaan Salaam and Ki-Jana Carter. <br />
McNair set career records for the Football Championship Series with 14,496
passing yards, as well as the division record for total offensive yards with
16,283 career yards.[5] The records still stand.[5]<br />
<br />
#2 <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Peyton Manning, Tennessee (SEC)<br />
<br />
Manning stunned many when he chose to attend the University of Tennessee
instead of Ole Miss, his father's alma mater.[13] He became Tennessee's
all-time leading passer with 11,201 yards and 89 touchdowns and won 39 of 45
games as a starter, breaking the Southeastern Conference (SEC) record for
career wins.[14][15]<br />
As a freshman, Manning was the third-string quarterback, but injuries to
Todd Helton and Jerry Colquitt forced him to take over the Mississippi State
game, a 2421 loss. In his first start, the following week against Washington
State, the Vols won, 109, and the Vols won all but one of their remaining
games, finishing the season 84 with a 4523 victory over Virginia Tech in the
Gator Bowl.[16][17][18]<br />
Manning and the Vols started off the 1995 season with victories over East
Carolina and Georgia, before heading off to Gainesville to play the Gators.[19]
Against Florida, he threw for 326 yards and 2 touchdowns, leading the Vols to a
3021 halftime lead. However, the Gators outscored the Vols 417 in the second
half, winning 6237.[20] This would be the Vols' only loss of the season, as
they won their remaining 8 regular season games, including a 4114 win over
Alabama and then defeated Ohio State in the Citrus Bowl.[21][22] The Vols ended
the season ranked third and Manning came in sixth in Heisman Trophy voting.[23]<br />
The Vols opened the 1996 season ranked second behind Nebraska and one of the
favorites to win the national championship.[24] However, after winning their
first two games against UNLV and UCLA, the Vols again lost to Florida, 3529,
with Manning throwing four interceptions.[25] After winning their next four
games, the Vols were upset by Memphis, despite Manning passing for 296
yards.[26] The Vols won the remainder of their games, including a 4828 win in
the Citrus Bowl over Northwestern, a game in which Manning passed for 408 yards
and 4 touchdowns; he was named the game's MVP.[27][28]<br />
Manning completed his degree in three years, and was projected to be the top
overall pick in the NFL Draft, but returned to Tennessee for his senior
year.[29] In his senior season, the Vols opened the season with victories
against Texas Tech and UCLA, but for the third time in his career, Manning fell
to Florida, 3320.[30][31][32] The Vols won the rest of their regular season
games, finishing 101, and advanced to the SEC Championship game against Auburn.
Down 207, Manning led the Vols to a 3029 victory. Throwing for 4 touchdowns, he
was named the game's MVP, but injured himself in the process.[33][34] The
3rd-ranked Vols were matched-up with 2nd-ranked Nebraska in the Orange Bowl; if
Tennessee won and top-ranked Michigan lost to Washington State in the Rose
Bowl, the Vols would win the national championship.[35] However, the Vols'
defense could not stop Nebraska's rushing attack, giving up over 400 rushing
yards in a 4217 loss.[36] As a senior, Manning won numerous awards; he was a
consensus First-team All-American, the Maxwell Award winner, the Davey O'Brien
Award winner, the Johnny Unitas Award winner, and the Best College Player ESPY
award winner, among others; however, he did not win the Heisman, finishing
runner-up to Charles Woodson.<br />
<br />
#3 <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Donovan McNabb, Syracuse (Big
East)<br />
<br />
Though McNabb was approached by recruiters from numerous colleges, only two
schoolsSyracuse University and the University of Nebraskaoffered him
scholarships to play as quarterback.[4] He initially leaned toward attending
Nebraska, as he relished the idea of being coached by Tom Osborne. Eventually,
however, he decided to attend Syracuse, principally because he wanted to prove
he was a competent "pocket passer", but also for academic
reasons.[citation needed]<br />
After redshirting in 1994, his first year at Syracuse, McNabb went on to
start every game during his college career, compiling a 3514 record.[5] As a
freshman, he completed the longest touchdown pass in Syracuse's historya
96-yard throw against West Virginia Universityin a game where he accounted for
354 total yards of offense;[6] he was named the Big East Conference's rookie of
the year at the end of the season.[7] McNabb amassed 2,892 yards of total
offense in his junior season to set a school record.[8] As a senior, he led
Syracuse to a berth in the Orange Bowl against Florida as he completed 157 of
251 passes (62.5%) for 2,134 yards; he also pushed the eventual champions, the
1998 Tennessee Volunteers, to the limit in a very close game. His 22 touchdown
passes tied the school's single season record, set by former Eagle Don
McPherson in 1987. McNabb also rushed 135 times for 438 yards and 8 touchdowns.
He ranked sixth in the nation with a 158.9 passing efficiency rating and 22nd
in total offense, with 233.8 yards per game. He tied a school record with 4
touchdown passes against Cincinnati, and scored 5 touchdowns against Miami (3
rushing and 2 passing).<br />
McNabb was named the Big East's offensive player of the decade for the
1990s,[9] and Big East Offensive Player of the Year an unprecedented three
times from 199698,[7] as well as the first-team all-conference vote earner in
each of his four seasons. Later, he was named to the Syracuse All-Century
Football team.[10] He also spent two years as a reserve on the school's nationally
ranked basketball team, including the 1996 squad that lost to Kentucky in the
National Championship game.<br />
McNabb was also a walk-on for two seasons for the Syracuse basketball team
under legendary head coach Jim Boeheim.[11]<br />
Big East records<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>1st - touchdown passes (77)[12]<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2nd - touchdowns responsible for (96) behind
Pat White[13]<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>5th - passing yards (8,389)[12]<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>3rd - total offensive yards (9,950)[13] behind
Matt Grothe and Pat White<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>1st - total offensive plays (1,403) [13]<br />
Syracuse University records<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>1st - total yards per game (221.1)<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>1st - passing efficiency (155.1)<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>1st - yards per attempt (9.1)<br />
<br />
#4 <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Dante Culpepper, UCF (Conference
USA)<br />
<br />
He struggled to get into college, because of low SAT scores.[citation needed]
Marquee football schools, such as the University of Miami and University of
Florida, backed off from recruiting him when it was assumed he would not
qualify.[citation needed] The University of Central Florida, however, offered
to tutor him and help him achieve the necessary scores, and he was able to
qualify. Although the big college programs returned to recruit him, as a show
of loyalty, Culpepper enrolled at UCF.<br />
Although he had a love for baseball, Culpepper committed to play football at
UCF as a quarterback. He rewrote virtually all of the school's quarterback
records, approximately 30 in all, many held by Darin Slack since 1987. He also
set an NCAA record for single-season completion percentage at 73.6%, breaking a
15-year-old mark set by Steve Young (71.3%). This record would stand until Colt
McCoy (Texas) finished the 2008 season with a completion percentage of 77.6%.
Culpepper accomplished a feat equaled by only two others in NCAA history when
he topped the 10,000 yard passing mark and the 1,000 yard rushing mark in his
career. He finished his career sixth on the NCAA's all-time total offense list
for all divisions with 12,459 yards and was responsible for 108 career
touchdowns (84 passing).<br />
After his junior season, he was being lured out of the collegiate ranks to
enter the draft and join the NFL, but instead returned to UCF to graduate and
play his senior year. UCF posted a 92 record, losing only to Purdue and Auburn.<br />
Statistics<br />
Year Team Passing Yards TD INT<br />
1995 UCF 2071 12 10<br />
1996 UCF 2565 19 15<br />
1997 UCF 3086 25 10<br />
1998 UCF 3690 28 7<br />
<br />
#5 Chad Pennington <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Marshall,
(Conference USA)<br />
<br />
Originally the Thundering Herd's fourth-string quarterback in 1995 (and
slated to be redshirted), Pennington led Marshall to the NCAA Division I-AA
Football Championship game, in which Marshall lost to Montana, 22-20. The
following year, Pennington was redshirted in favor of Eric Kresser, a transfer
from the University of Florida who guided the Herd's return to the 1-AA
Championship game in 1996. Pennington returned to play in 1997 as Marshall
moved from Division 1-AA to Division 1-A football. His senior year (1999)
featured Marshall having an undefeated and untied record (13-0) as Pennington
led the team to its third consecutive Mid-American Conference championship.<br />
Pennington set school records in several passing categories. Randy Moss was
Pennington's top receiver at Marshall. He finished fifth in Heisman voting in
1999. Pennington was selected by the New York Jets in the first round and was
the eighteenth (18th) overall pick of the 2000 NFL Draft. Pennington finished
his career at Marshall with 1,026 of 1,619 completions for 13,423 yards and 115
touchdowns, with only 45 interceptions.[4]<br />
He led Marshall to the school's first bowl victory in a 48-29 routing of
Louisville in the 1998 Motor City Bowl. Pennington was the bowl game's MVP.
Pennington and Marshall returned to Pontiac, Michigan, the following year
taking a 21-3 victory over Brigham Young, capping Pennington's undefeated
senior season which earned Pennington the nickname "The Golden Boy."<br />
In addition to his success on the football field, Pennington excelled
academically, graduating with a degree in journalism, a 3.83 grade point
average and becoming a finalist for the Rhodes Scholarship. He wrote frequently
for Marshall's newspaper The Parthenon and was a broadcaster for the school's
radio station, although he used a pseudonym on air so as not to be
distracting.[5]<br />
<br />
#6 Michael Vick <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Virginia Tech, (ACC)<br />
<br />
In his first collegiate game as a redshirt freshman against James Madison in
1999, Vick scored three rushing touchdowns in just over one quarter of play.
His last touchdown was a spectacular flip in which he landed awkwardly on his
ankle, forcing him to miss the remainder of the game in addition to the
following game. During the season, Vick led a last-minute game-winning drive
against West Virginia in the annual Black Diamond Trophy game. He led the
Hokies to an 110 season and to the Bowl Championship Series national title game
in the Nokia Sugar Bowl against Florida State. Although Virginia Tech lost 4629,
Vick was able to bring the team back from a 21 point deficit to take a brief
lead. During the season, Vick appeared on the cover of an ESPN The Magazine
issue.<br />
Vick led the NCAA in passing efficiency that year, setting a record for a
freshman (180.4), which was good enough for the third-highest all-time mark.
Vick was awarded an ESPY Award as the nation's top college player and won the
first-ever Archie Griffin Award as college football's most valuable player. He
was invited to the 1999 Heisman Trophy presentation and finished third in the
voting behind Ron Dayne and Joe Hamilton. Vick's third place finish matched the
highest finish ever by a freshman up to that point, first set by Herschel Walker
in 1980.<br />
Vick's 2000 season had highlights, such as his career rushing high of 210
yards against the Boston College in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. Against West
Virginia University in the Black Diamond Trophy game, Vick accounted for 288
total yards of offense and two touchdowns in a 4820 win. The following week,
Vick led the Hokies from a 140 deficit against Syracuse at the Carrier Dome,
where the Hokies had not won since 1986. Vick put the game away with a 55-yard
run with 1:34 left.[11]<br />
The following game against Pittsburgh, Vick was injured and had to miss the
rest of the game as well as the entire game against Central Florida, and was
unable to start against the Miami Hurricanes, the Hokies' lone loss of the
season. Vick's final game at Virginia Tech came against the Clemson Tigers in
the Toyota Gator Bowl, where he was named MVP of the game.<br />
Vick left Virginia Tech after his redshirt sophomore season. Aware that the
rest of his family was still living in their 3 bedroom apartment in the Ridley
Circle Homes, Vick stated that he was going to buy his mother "a home and
a car." ESPN later reported that Vick used some of his NFL and endorsement
earnings to buy his mother a brand-new house in an upscale section of Suffolk,
Virginia.[12]<br />
Statistics<br />
Passing Rushing<br />
YEAR CMP ATT CMP% YDS TD INT ATT YDS TD<br />
1999 90 153 58.8 1840 12 5 110 580 8<br />
2000 97 179 54.2 1439 9 7 113 636 9<br />
<br />
#7 Drew Brees <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Purdue, (Big Ten)<br />
<br />
Brees graduated from Purdue University with a degree in industrial management.[7]
He left Purdue with Big Ten Conference records in passing yards (11,792),
touchdown passes (90), total offensive yards (12,693), completions (1,026), and
attempts (1,678). He led the Boilermakers to the 2001 Rose Bowl, Purdue's first
appearance there since 1967. In the game Purdue lost by ten points to the
Washington Huskies. Brees was a finalist for the Davey O'Brien Award as the
nation's best quarterback in 1999. He won the Maxwell Award as the nation's
outstanding player of 2000 and won the NCAA's Today's Top VIII Award as a
member of the Class of 2001. Brees was also fourth in Heisman Trophy voting in
1999 and third in 2000. Brees also set an NCAA record with the longest pass
ever (99 yards), to receiver Vinny Sutherland against Northwestern on September
25, 1999<br />
As a senior, Brees was named the Academic All-America Player of the Year,
the first Purdue player since Bruce Brineman (1989) to earn national academic
honors. Brees also was awarded Purdue's Leonard Wilson Award for unselfishness and
dedication.<br />
Awards and honors<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2 — Heisman Trophy Finalist<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Outback Bowl MVP<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Alamo Bowl MVP<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Big Ten Football MVP (2000)<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Maxwell Award (2000)<br />
<br />
#8 Carson Palmer <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>USC, (Pac-10)<br />
<br />
Carson Palmer arrived at the University of Southern California in 1998 and
immediately competed for the starting quarterback job with Mike Van Raaphorst.
Van Raaphorst won, but due to his ineffectiveness, Palmer was named the starter
in the ninth game of the season, becoming only the second true freshman ever to
start as quarterback for the Trojans. Palmer roomed with fellow USC football
player, Troy Polamalu, who now plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers, a division
rival of the Cincinnati Bengals and Matt Cassel of the Kansas City Chiefs.<br />
After three underwhelming years at USC, Palmer had a breakout senior year
under the tutelage of new offensive coordinator Norm Chow, who was brought in
the year before by head coach Pete Carroll after spending 27 seasons at Brigham
Young University and one season at North Carolina State University. The
revamped Trojans offense led to Carson Palmer becoming the fifth Trojan to win
the Heisman Trophy, after running backs Mike Garrett (1965), O.J. Simpson
(1968), Charles White (1979), and Marcus Allen (1981). Palmer was the first Trojan
quarterback to be so honored; his successor, Matt Leinart, won it as a junior
in 2004.<br />
Carson Palmer completed 309 of 489 passes for 3942 yards and 33 touchdowns
with only 10 interceptions during the 2002 season, and later led the Trojans to
an impressive 3817 victory over the University of Iowa in the Orange Bowl. His
completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns were all USC single season
records. In a November 30 game against Notre Dame, Palmer threw for 425 yards
and led his team to 610 yards of total offense, the most ever gained against
Notre Dame in each category. Palmer left college as the Pac-10 Conference's
all-time leader in passing yards (11,818), completions (927) and total offense
(11,621), along with 72 career touchdown passes, a USC record at that time <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Matt Leinart has since surpassed the record,
which currently stands at 99.<br />
Stats at USC<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>1999: 39/53 (73.6%) for 490 yards, 3 Passing
TDs and 1 Rushing TD; with 3 Interceptions<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2000: 228/415 (54.9%) for 2914 yards, 16 Passing
TDs and 2 Rushing TDs; with 18 Interceptions<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2001: 221/377 (58.6%) for 2717 yards, 13
Passing TDs and 1 Rushing TD; with 12 Interceptions<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2002: 309/489 (63.2%) for 3942 yards, 33
Passing TDs and 4 Rushing TDs; with 10 Interceptions<br />
<br />
#9 Eli Manning, Ole Miss (SEC)<br />
<br />
During his football career at Ole Miss, Manning set or tied 45 single-game,
season, and career records. His career numbers include 10,119 passing yards
(fifth on the SEC career list), 81 touchdown passes (third on the SEC career
list), and a passer rating of 137.7 (tied for sixth on the SEC career list).
Manning also led the Rebels to a 10-3 record and a 31-28 SBC Cotton Bowl
Classic victory over the Oklahoma State Cowboys in 2003. He was invited to play
in the 2004 Senior Bowl, but chose not to play.[2]<br />
As his senior year came to a close, Manning won many awards including the
Maxwell Award as the nation s best all-around player, the Johnny Unitas Golden
Arm Award, the National Football Foundation and College Hall of Fame Scholar
Athlete Award, the Sporting News Radio Socrates Award, and the SEC Player of
the Year. He was also a candidate for the Heisman Trophy but lost to Oklahoma's
quarterback Jason White (1,481 voting points). Manning had 710 voting points
making him third behind White and University of Pittsburgh wide receiver Larry
Fitzgerald.[3]<br />
Manning graduated from the University of Mississippi with a degree in
marketing and a GPA of 3.44.[4]<br />
College Awards<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2002 Independence Bowl MVP<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2003 Cotton Bowl Classic Offensive MVP<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2003 Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award Winner<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2003 Maxwell Award<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2 — Conerly Trophy Winner (2001 & 2003)<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>4x American award Winner(2000-04)<br />
<br />
#10 Philip Rivers, NC State (ACC)<br />
<br />
After high school, Rivers attended North Carolina State University in
Raleigh, North Carolina, where he played for coach Chuck Amato. During his
collegiate career, Rivers shattered almost every NC State and Atlantic Coast
Conference passing record. His career culminated with a record 51st college
start. The Wolfpack went to four consecutive bowl games under the leadership of
Rivers, winning three of them, including a New Year's Day victory over Notre
Dame in the 2003 Gator Bowl.<br />
Rivers was named ACC Athlete of the Year in 2004 and was also named the game
MVP of four bowl games, two Tangerine Bowls, a Gator Bowl and the 2004 Senior
Bowl. Rivers was even named the "Offensive MVP" for NC State in a
losing cause to Pittsburgh in 2001's Tangerine Bowl. He was considered a
Heisman candidate by some journalists,[4] but he was not invited to the Heisman
Trophy presentation. Rivers finished his career with 13,484 passing yards, 4th
all-time among Division 1-A quarterbacks (he was 2nd at the end of his
collegiate career). He also threw 95 touchdown passes, which ties him for
eighth all-time with Kliff Kingsbury and Brady Quinn. Rivers' number was
retired before his final home game at North Carolina State.<br />
<br />
#11 Ben Roethlisberger, Miami (OH) (MAC)<br />
<br />
Roethslisberger played college quarterback at Miami University in Oxford,
Ohio. At Miami, he got a chance to start as a redshirt freshman and started
three years of Division I college football despite only a single year
experience as a high school quarterback.[7] Roethlisberger holds every major
passing record at the school and a number of passing records in the
Mid-American Conference (MAC). He played just three years before joining the
NFL.<br />
As a redshirt freshman, Roethlisberger threw for over 3,100 yards. In 2002,
he threw more than 3,200 yards, and in 2003, he threw more than 4,400 yards. In
2003, Roethlisberger led the Miami RedHawks to an unbeaten record in the MAC, a
No. 10 ranking in the Associated Press poll and a 49-28 victory over Louisville
in the 2003 GMAC Bowl.[7]<br />
<br />
#12 Aaron Rodgers, Cal (Pac-10)<br />
<br />
2002<br />
Despite his record-setting statistics, Rodgers, who measured at 5-foot-10
and weighed 165 pounds as a senior,[10] both undersized for Division I
quarterbacks, garnered little interest from programs with only one offer, that
of a walk-on from Illinois. He declined the invitation and attended Butte
Community College in Oroville, about 15 miles (25 km) southeast of Chico. In
his freshman season, he threw 28 touchdowns while leading Butte to a 101
record, a NorCal Conference championship, and a No. 2 national ranking. While
there, Rodgers was discovered by the Bears head coach Jeff Tedford, who was
recruiting Butte tight end Garrett Cross. Because he had a 3.6 grade point
average and SAT score of 1300 out of high school, Rodgers was eligible to transfer
after one year of junior college instead of the typical two.[11]<br />
2003<br />
As a junior college transfer, Rodgers had three years of eligibility at Cal.
He was named the starting quarterback in the fifth game of the 2003 season,
coincidentally against the only team that offered him a Division I opportunity
out of high school, Illinois. As a sophomore, he helped lead the Golden Bears
to a 73 record as a starter.[12] Against the then-No. 3 ranked USC in his
second career start, Rodgers led the team to a 217 halftime lead before being
replaced due to injury in the second half by Reggie Robertson.[13][14] The
Bears won in triple overtime, 3431.[13] Rodgers passed for 394 yards and was
named game MVP in the Insight Bowl against Virginia Tech. In 2003, Rodgers tied
the school season record for 300-yard games with 5 and set a school record for
lowest percentage of passes intercepted at 1.43%.[15]<br />
2004<br />
As a junior, Rodgers led Cal to a 101 record and top-five ranking at the end
of the regular season, with their only loss coming in a closely contested and
well-played game at #1 USC, 1723. In that game, Rodgers set a school record for
consecutive completed passes with 26 and tied an NCAA record with 23
consecutive passes completed in one game. Rodgers set a school single game
record for passing completion, completing 85.3% of his passes in that game.
Rodgers also holds the school career record for lowest percentage of passes
intercepted at 1.95%.[15] Despite these records, the Bears had 1st and goal
with 1:47 remaining and could not score a winning touchdown. The game-ending
sequence included three incomplete passes and a sack by USC.[16]<br />
After Texas was picked over Cal for a Rose Bowl berth, the fourth-ranked Bears
earned a spot in the Holiday Bowl, but lost to Texas Tech, 4531.<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2003 Honorable mention All-Pac-10[20] <br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2003 Insight Bowl Offensive MVP <br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2004 Cal Co-Offensive MVP[21] <br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2004 First-team All-Pac-10[22]<br />
<br />
#13 Jay Cutler, Vanderbuilt (SEC)<br />
<br />
Cutler attended Vanderbilt University, where he started all 45 career games
that he played for the Commodores, the most starts by a quarterback in school
history. He did not miss a game due to injury.[1] The Commodores were 11-35
during his tenure, including going 5-27 versus the SEC. In 2002, Cutler set the
school record for touchdowns and rushing yards by a freshman and rushed for
more yards than any other Southeastern Conference quarterback that year. The
Associated Press honored him with a first-team freshman All-SEC selection.[1]
In 2004, as a junior, Cutler completed 61.0 percent of his passes, setting a
school record, while throwing for 1,844 yards with 10 touchdowns and a
career-low five interceptions.[1]<br />
The 2005 season, Cutler's final year of play at Vanderbilt, was his most
successful. As an 11-game starter, he completed 273-of-462 passes (59.1%) for
3,073 yards, 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions, as he became the first
Commodore to win the SEC Offensive Player of the Year (coaches and media) since
1967.[1] With his senior-season performance, Cutler became the second Commodore
to throw for more than 3,000 yards in a season, while his 273 completions and
21 touchdowns ranked second on the school s single-season list.[1] He led the
Commodores to victories over Wake Forest, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Richmond and
Tennessee. The Commodores also scored the second most points ever (42) laid
upon the Florida Gators at their current home field at Ben Hill Griffin
Stadium. Vanderbilt nearly upset the 13th-ranked Gators before falling 4942 in
the second overtime after a controversial excessive celebration call prevented
the commodores from going for 2 at the end of regulation. Reflecting on
Cutler's college career, former Denver Broncos safety John Lynch said, "If
this guy can take a bunch of future doctors and lawyers and have them competing
against the Florida Gators, this guy is a stud."[4]<br />
The Commodores ended their season, and Cutler's Vanderbilt career, at
Tennessee against the Tennessee Volunteers with a 2824 win. The victory was
Vanderbilt's first over the Volunteers since 1982, the year before Cutler was
born. The win also marked Vanderbilt's first victory over Tennessee on the
Volunteers' home field in Knoxville since 1975.[5] Cutler passed for three
touchdowns and 315 yards during the game, becoming the first quarterback in
school history to record four consecutive 300-yard passing performances.[1]
Cutler's final play in college was the game-winning (and streak-ending)
touchdown pass to teammate Earl Bennett against Tennessee. A finalist for the
Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award (nation s top senior quarterback), Cutler was a
first-team All-SEC pick by the league s coaches and led the conference with a
school-record 3,288 yards of total offense.[1]<br />
While at Vanderbilt, Cutler was a three-year captain and four-year starter,
setting school career records for total offense (9,953 yds.), touchdown passes
(59), passing yards (8,697), pass completions (710), pass attempts (1,242) and
combined touchdowns (76).<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Sporting News third-team freshman
All-American (2002)<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Associated Press first-team freshman All-SEC
(2002)<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>First-team All-SEC (2005)<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>SEC Offensive Player of the Year (2005)<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award finalist (2005)<br />
<br />
#14 Matt Ryan, Boston College (ACC)<br />
<br />
Before the 2004 season, he was named the backup quarterback for Boston
College due to an injury to Quinton Porter. He saw his first action on October
2, 2004 against the UMass Minutemen. He completed two of three passes for 16
yards. He completed his first touchdown on November 20, 2004 against Temple on
a 32-yard completion to Larry Lester. Replacing the injured Paul Peterson, he
completed eight of 15 passes for 121 yards. He made his first collegiate start
on November 27, 2004 in the final game of that season, completing 24 of 51
passes for 200 yards against Syracuse. He also played against North Carolina in
the Continental Tire Bowl. He completed one of his two passes for 13 yards.
Matt was also quite proficient in the classroom, and was awarded the 2004
Freshman Male Scholar-Athlete award that same year.[9]<br />
2005 season<br />
At the beginning of the 2005 season, Ryan was named the second string
quarterback behind Quinton Porter. Porter had some success at the beginning of
the year, including winning Atlantic Coast Conference player of the week for
his performance in Boston College's 2817 win over Virginia. After a 3010 loss
to third-ranked Virginia Tech, coach Tom O'Brien finally went to Ryan for good
in the 4th Quarter of the next game against North Carolina. In ten games (five
starts), he completed 121 of 195 passes for 1,514 yards. He had eight
touchdowns and five interceptions. He also had five rushing touchdowns and 94
yards. He started his first bowl game in the MPC Computers Bowl versus Boise
State. He completed 19 of 36 passes for 256 yards and a career-best three
touchdowns.[9]<br />
2006 season<br />
Ryan started 11 of 12 games. He completed 243 of 398 passes for 2,700 yards,
14 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He also ran for three touchdowns. He was
All-ACC first-team and led the ACC in total offense (242.2 yards per game) and
in passing yards (245.5 yards per game). He was named ACC Offensive Back of the
week 3 times. He set career highs in completions (32 vs. Central Michigan) and
passing yards (356 vs. Brigham Young). He led the team to a 9-3 record
including double overtime wins versus Clemson and Brigham Young. He led the
Eagles to a close 25-24 victory on December 26, 2006 in the Meineke Car Care
Bowl against Navy in Charlotte, North Carolina. In the season opener against
Central Michigan, Ryan sprained his ankle. Against Virginia Tech, Ryan broke
his foot on the same leg. Despite these injuries, Ryan only missed one game
(against Buffalo).[10] His 57 pass attempts in the 2006 Wake Forest game tied
Shawn Halloran vs. Syracuse Orange in 1985 and Frank Harris vs. Army in 1968
for the BC record his 40 pass completions in the 2006 Wake Forest game broke
the old school record of 37 by Frank Harris in the 1968 Army clash.<br />
2007 season<br />
Before the season started Ryan was named to the preseason All-ACC team.
Against Wake Forest, he completed 32 of 52 passes for 408 yards and 5
touchdowns. Boston College also hired a new coach: Jeff Jagodzinski, a longtime
NFL assistant.[11] He continued his hot streak versus Georgia Tech, going 30-44
with 1 TD and passing for a career-high 435 yards against the staunch Tech
defense en route to a convincing 24-10 road victory. After this game, Ryan was
suggested as a potential Heisman Trophy contender. Battling Virginia Tech
through bad weather in Blacksburg, Virginia, Ryan led an amazing comeback for
the Boston College Eagles, passing for two touchdowns with less than 3 minutes
to play on October 25, 2007, including the game-winner with 11 seconds left to
Andre Callender.[12][13] However, Matt Ryan's chances to win the Heisman fell
sharply after he threw three interceptions in a 27-17 loss to Florida State, an
unranked team that had six wins and three losses. However with a strong
performance against Clemson[14] his chances were raised substantially. Despite
2 consecutive ACC losses, Ryan and the Eagles found themselves with a trip to
the conference championship on the line. Down 10-3 in the third quarter, he led
the offense on a game-tying drive, hitting on key passes to Rich Gunnell,Andre
Callender and Ryan Purvis , landing the Eagles at the Clemson 2 early in the
fourth.James McCluskey finished the job from there, running it in to even the
score at 10-apiece. Shortly thereafter, a Clemson turnover resulted in a BC
field goal and a 13-10 lead for the maroon and gold . On November 24, against
ACC rival Miami,[15] Ryan surpassed Doug Flutie for the most passing touchdowns
in a single season by an Eagle QB with 28 TD's, ultimately ending the season
with 31. Despite these records, he struggled with throwing interceptions
throughout the year, and finished with 19 (2nd most among college
quarterbacks).His five touchdown passes in the 2007 Wake Forest game are one
shy of the school record of six, held by Doug Flutie in 1984 vs North Carolina.
For the maroon and gold, it was their first 10-win regular season since 1940
and the first time they had achieved back-to-back 10-overall-win seasons in
program history. He led the Eagles to extend the nation's longest bowl winning
streak to eight with a 24-21 victory over Michigan State Spartans in the Champs
Sports Bowl on December 28, Ryan threw three touchdown passes, two to Rich
Gunnell and one to Jon Loyte .[16] Matt Ryan was awarded the 2007 Johnny Unitas
Golden Arm Award, given annually in the United States to the Nation's most
outstanding college football senior quarterback , the other finalists for the
2007 award were Hawaii's Colt Brennan, Louisville's Brian Brohm , Oregon's
Dennis Dixon and Kentucky's Andre Woodson ( all of whom were drafted at the
2008 NFL Draft ) He was selected to play in the 2008 Senior Bowl. He also won
the 2007 Manning Award awarded to the nation's top quarterback , beating out
eventual Heisman winner Tim Tebow and eight other finalists for this year's
award: Erik Ainge (Tennessee), Sam Bradford (Oklahoma), Colt Brennan (Hawaii),
Chase Daniel (Missouri), Dennis Dixon (Oregon), Graham Harrell (Texas Tech),
Pat White (West Virginia) and Andre' Woodson (Kentucky). He also he was named
"Eagle of the Year" alongside BC's first ever individual champion
Kasey Hill, in November, he was asked to talk at the Boston College
Multi-Cultural Thanksgiving celebration where he spoke of family, integrity and
devotion. He is featured as the cover athlete for the PS3 version of NCAA
Football 09[17]<br />
<br />
#15 Joe Flacco, Delaware (Div I-AA, Colonial)<br />
<br />
Pittsburgh<br />
In 2003, Flacco was redshirted as a freshman for a team that went 8-5.<br />
In 2004, he was the backup quarterback finding limited playing time behind
starter Tyler Palko. He only saw action in three games against Ohio University,
University of Nebraska, and the University of South Florida. He finished the
season with one completion for 11 yards.<br />
Delaware<br />
After the 2004 season, Flacco transferred to the University of Delaware. He
was not awarded the one-time transfer exception from the University of
Pittsburgh, so he was not eligible to receive a scholarship and participate in
Delaware's 2005 season.<br />
Flacco saw his first full-time action during the 2006 season. He put up good
numbers for the Fightin' Blue Hens with nearly 3,000 yards, and 18 touchdowns
with 10 interceptions. Delaware struggled to a 56 record, missing the playoffs.<br />
In the 2007 season, Flacco led his team to an 83 regular season record while
compiling over 3,300 yards, 18 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. He was
considered one of college football's most accurate passers in 2007.
[3][unreliable source?] Arguably his best game came against Division 1-A Navy
where he threw for 434 yards and four touchdowns. Flacco showed another solid
performance in the first-ever meeting against the Delaware State Hornets in the
first round of the playoffs. Behind Omar Cuff's record-setting day, Flacco
threw efficiently for 189 yards and a touchdown, leading the Blue Hens to an
easy 447 victory. Flacco continued Delaware's playoff run by upsetting the
Northern Iowa Panthers 3927 in the FCS quarterfinals and upsetting the Southern
Illinois Salukis 2017 the next weekend in the semifinals. Flacco threw for over
200 yards and two touchdowns against both the Panthers and Salukis,[4] but went
on to lose in the championship game to the Appalachian State Mountaineers 4921.<br />
Flacco set 20 school records during his career at Delaware.[5]<br />
<br />
#16 Josh Freeman, Kansas State, (Big 12)<br />
<br />
Freeman originally committed to the University of Nebraska to play for
former head coach Bill Callahan, but the newly hired head coach at Kansas
State, Ron Prince, convinced Freeman to enroll at Kansas State instead.<br />
As a freshman in 2006, Freeman appeared in 11 of 13 games that season,
including starts in the final eight contests of 2006. He took over at
quarterback during the second half at Baylor and directed the Kansas State
offense the rest of the season. He passed for a Kansas State freshman record
1,780 yards on 140-of-270 passing (52%). He became the first true freshman to
start a game at Kansas State since 1976. Additionally, he had consecutive 250+
yard passing games against Colorado and Texas, marking the first time a Kansas
State quarterback had done so since Michael Bishop in 1998. He attempted a
Kansas State freshman-record 47 passes against Nebraska, completing 23 for 272
yards. He earned his first career start against Oklahoma State and led the
Wildcats to a comeback win. He finished the game 10-for-15 passing for 177
yards and ran for a game-winning 21-yard touchdown with 1:11 to go in the game.
In 2007, he set new single-season school records for pass attempts, completions
and yards after throwing for 3,353 yards and 18 touchdowns on 316-of-499
passing. In 2008, Freeman was 224 of 382 passing for 2,945 yards and 20
touchdowns and eight interceptions this season for a passer rating of 132.9.
The 14 rushing touchdowns were the fourth-most in a single season by a Wildcat
quarterback.[2]<br />
In his three year collegiate career, Freeman completed 680 passes for 8,078
yards and 44 touchdowns and 34 interceptions in 35 career games. He accumulated
a school-record 8,427 total yards and joined Ell Roberson as the only quarterbacks
in Kansas State history to score at least 60 touchdowns.<br />
<br />
#17 Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, (Big 12)<br />
<br />
Freshman season<br />
In 2006, Oklahoma's starting quarterback Rhett Bomar, then a sophomore, was
dismissed from the team for violating NCAA rules. Paul Thompson, a senior
quarterback-turned-wide receiver, converted back to quarterback and led the
2006 Oklahoma Sooners football team to win the Big 12 Championship Game. His
departure left a void at the quarterback position at Oklahoma. Six players on
the roster tried out for the starting position during the following off-season,
including three walk-on quarterbacks,[6] true freshman Keith Nichol (a
Rivals.com 4-star recruit and 6th-ranked dual-threat quarterback in the 2007
recruiting class, who later transferred to Michigan State University), junior
Joey Halzle (the only one with game experience), and Bradford, a redshirt
freshman. On August 21, 2007, Bradford won the starting quarterback role for
the 2007 team.[7]<br />
In his first game for the Sooners, against the University of North Texas,
Bradford completed 21 of 23 attempts for 363 yards and three touchdowns in a
little over two quarters, breaking the school record for passing yards in a
half, held by his quarterback coach Josh Heupel, with 350.[8] The very next
game, Bradford broke Heisman Trophy winner Jason White's school record for most
consecutive pass completions with 22 (18 came in the first half and four at the
start of the second).[9]<br />
In the second week of the 2007 season, Bradford was named the national
offensive player of the week by the Walter Camp Foundation[10] after tying the
school record for most touchdown passes in a game with five.[11] Having thrown
25 touchdowns through his first nine games, Bradford was on pace to break the
NCAA freshman record of 29 touchdowns set by David Neill in 1998 and tied by
Colt McCoy in 2006.<br />
In the November 17, 2007 game against Texas Tech, Bradford suffered a
concussion of unknown severity. He was removed from the game and replaced by
back-up quarterback Joey Halzle. The Sooners lost the game, 2734. [12] Bradford
was able to play in the Bedlam game against Oklahoma State on November 24.
[13][14]<br />
During the November 24, 2007 game against the Oklahoma State Cowboys,
Bradford broke the NCAA freshman record of 29 touchdowns by passing his 30th
touchdown to Joe Jon Finley during the second quarter.[15] At the Missouri
Tigers game, Bradford threw for 209 yards and 0 interceptions. He was 1826 and
threw for two touchdowns.<br />
The Sooners won the Big 12 Championship after defeating Missouri for the
second time in a season. The Sooners played the West Virginia Mountaineers in
the Fiesta Bowl on January 2, 2008 and lost 4828. It was Bradford's first BCS
bowl game as a starter.<br />
Sophomore season<br />
In week 8 of the following season against Kansas, Bradford surpassed
quarterback coach Josh Heupel's school record for passing yards in a single
game with 468 yards. Bradford led the Sooners to their third straight Big 12
Championship and defeated Missouri 6221. In the process, the Sooners broke
Hawaii's 2006 record for the most points in a single season with 702 points.
Also, the Sooners were the first team in NCAA history who had scored 60 or more
points in five straight games. Oklahoma finished the 2008 regular season with a
121 record, ranking #2 in the AP Poll and #1 in the BCS Standings. The Sooners
earned a trip to play Florida at the 2009 BCS National Championship Game.<br />
After the regular season, Bradford captured the Davey O'Brien Award[16] and
the Heisman Trophy.[17][18] He is the second sophomore, after 2007 winner Tim
Tebow of the University of Florida, to receive the Heisman; he also became the
fifth University of Oklahoma player, as well as the first person of Native
American descent since Jim Plunkett in 1970, to capture the trophy.[19]
Bradford received 1,726 total points while the other finalists, Colt McCoy, of
the University of Texas, and Tim Tebow, received 1,604 and 1,575, respectively.
Tebow, however, collected more first-place votes, 309, while Bradford got 300.
Bradford got the most points thanks to the help of his 315 second-place votes.
A total of 926 voters participated in the balloting.[20] When combined with
Blake Griffin's Naismith Award, Oklahoma became the first school to have a
winner in both top basketball and football individual awards in the same year.
Bradford was also voted the Associated Press College Football Player of the
Year. Bradford received 27 votes, again beating McCoy (17 votes) and Tim Tebow
(16 votes).[22] Bradford is the third Oklahoma Sooner to win the award, joining
Josh Heupel (2000) and Jason White (2003). Heupel and White were also
quarterbacks, with Heupel being the current quarterbacks coach for Oklahoma.<br />
Bradford faced Florida, led by Tebow, in the 2009 BCS National Championship
Game.[23] He threw 26-of-41 passes for 256 yards, two touchdowns, and two
interceptions. Florida ended up beating Oklahoma 2414.[24]<br />
Junior season<br />
Bradford announced that he would forgo the 2009 NFL Draft to return to Oklahoma
for his junior season.[25] In the Sooners' first game of the season (against
Brigham Young), Bradford suffered a 3rd degree AC joint sprain one play after
becoming Oklahoma's all-time passing leader. Playing without Bradford for the
second half of the game, Oklahoma went on to lose 1314. Bradford was originally
scheduled to return in about three to six weeks,[26] but head coach Bob Stoops
initially refused to either confirm or deny that timetable.[27] After missing
three weeks, Bradford returned to the field during the Baylor game, and
completed 27-of-49 passes for 389 yards and one touchdown, leading the Sooners
to a 337 victory.[28] Bradford re-injured his right shoulder on October 17,
2009 in the Red River Rivalry against Texas on the second drive of the game. It
was later announced that he would undergo season-ending shoulder surgery and
enter the 2010 NFL Draft.[29]<br />
Awards and honors<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2007 Sporting News Freshman of the Year[30]<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2007 Second-team All-American by Sporting
News[30]<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2007 Honorable mention All-American by Pro
Football Weekly[31] College Football News,[32] and Sports Illustrated[33]<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2007 All-Big 12 honorable mention by the
league's coaches[34]<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2007 All-Big 12 Academic Team[35]<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2008 Second-team Academic All-American by ESPN
The Magazine[36]<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2008 All-Big 12 Academic Team[37]<br />
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2008 Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year as
named by the league's coaches, who also selected him to the All-Big 12 first
team[38] <br />
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I agree that it is much more difficult to find a non-first round
franchise QB than most people think. I made a mistake and placed Brees
as a first rounder, but he was the first selected in the second
round.... <br />
<br />
So there were:<br />
16 out of 37 first rounders that became franchise QB's: 43%<br />
8 out of 162 that became franchise QB's outside the 1st round: 5%<br />
<br />
2nd Round - 32 Overall - Drew Brees Purdue<br />
3rd Round - 90 Overall - Matt Schaub Falcons Virginia<br />
4th Round - 108 Overall - David Garrard Jaguars East Carolina<br />
6th Round - 168 Overall - Marc Bulger Saints West Virginia<br />
6th Round - 187 Overall - Matt Hasselbeck Packers Boston College<br />
6th Round - 199 Overall - Tom Brady Patriots Michigan<br />
7th Round - 230 Overall - Matt Cassel Patriots USC<br />
Undrafted - Tony Romo<br />
<br />
I wonder what the %'s are for other positions... Remember Harbaugh had
Romo (undrafted) and Garrard (4th rd) rated high and Carr (1st rd) rated
low so he seems to have a knack for selecting QB's... not only that...
Harbaugh is one of the few that can develop QB's. I think there are
only a few teams that can develop QB's. Most draftees that succeed are
relatively NFL ready (Of course it usually takes a few years for most
QB's in the league to adjust to the NFL level)... a few that had limited
production in college such as Hasselbeck, Cassel, had to develop...<br />
-------------------------------------------------<br />
Here are my initial filters for analyzing QB's:<br />
<br />
My first filter is production and game experience...the more productive
you are in college, the more likely you will be productive in the NFL.
You also need to have played a certain amount of games to have
experience at a high level of competition. Most likely you've beaten
out competition to be a multi-year starter. Only 21% of the franchise
QB's threw for less than 7,000 yds in college. Three of those I
consider developed (Cassel, Hasselbeck, Vick.. Vick was always a good
football player with Atlanta, but he can now be considered a elite
franchise QB in Philly.)<br />
Rodgers and Brady are stars, but they only started two years in college.
However they had other great qualities: Played in major conference,
pro-style offense, good completion %, good QB rating. If you exclude
the projects, only these two (Brady,Rodgers) of 21 (9.5%) did not pass
over 7,000 yards.<br />
<br />
Yards Name<br />
14496 Steve McNair<br />
13484 Philip Rivers<br />
13423 Chad Pennington<br />
11792 Drew Brees<br />
11668 Carson Palmer<br />
11412 Dante Culpepper<br />
11201 Peyton Manning<br />
10829 Ben Roethlisberger<br />
10119 Eli Manning<br />
9313 Matt Ryan<br />
9029 David Garrard<br />
8697 Jay Cutler<br />
8403 Sam Bradford<br />
8389 Donovan McNabb<br />
8212 Tony Romo<br />
8153 Marc Bulger<br />
8078 Josh Freeman<br />
7502 Matt Shaub<br />
7046 Joe Flacco<br />
<b>5469 Aaron Rodgers<br />
5351 Tom Brady<br />
4548 Matt Hasselbeck<br />
3074 Michael Vick<br />
192 Matt Cassel</b><br />
8745.0 Average<br />
<br />
My second filter is accuracy. The metric I will use for this is
completion %. 8 out of 24 (33.3%) franchise QB's had a completion rate
less than 60%. Two (again Hasselbeck and Vick) with low completion
rating I consider to be projects. Note: Vick only threw for above 60%
once in Atlanta.) Of the rest:<br />
"Air" McNair was a prolific passer and #1 in yds passed in this list. <br />
Palmer, Freeman, McNabb, Cutler all played for major conferences in pro-style offenses.<br />
Garrard played in a small conference, but pro-style.<br />
<br />
Comp. % Name<br />
67.6% Sam Bradford<br />
67.0% Matt Shaub<br />
65.5% Ben Roethlisberger<br />
65.5% Chad Pennington<br />
63.9% Dante Culpepper<br />
63.8% Aaron Rodgers<br />
63.5% Philip Rivers<br />
63.3% Joe Flacco<br />
62.5% Peyton Manning<br />
62.3% Tom Brady<br />
62.1% Tony Romo<br />
61.6% Marc Bulger<br />
61.5% Drew Brees<br />
60.8% Eli Manning<br />
60.6% Matt Cassel<br />
60.0% Matt Ryan<br />
<b>59.1% Carson Palmer<br />
59.1% Josh Freeman<br />
58.4% Donovan McNabb<br />
57.2% Jay Cutler<br />
57.0% David Garrard<br />
56.5% Michael Vick<br />
55.6% Matt Hasselbeck<br />
55.2% Steve McNair</b><br />
61.2% Average<br />
<br />
The next filter I have is QB rating which takes into consideration
completion %, but also TD's and Int's as well as yards per attempt. I
used the NFL QB rating for this analysis and made the cutoff a rating of
90. (Only 33% of this list had a QB rating under 90. If you remove
Hasselbeck and Cassel, only 27% of this list had a QB rating under 90.)
<br />
Brees, Palmer, Cutler, Ryan, Freeman all played for major conferences in pro-style offenses.<br />
Garrard played in a small conference, but pro-style.<br />
<br />
Rating Name<br />
123.0 Sam Bradford<br />
104.3 Tony Romo<br />
103.8 Donovan McNabb<br />
103.3 Chad Pennington<br />
102.9 Aaron Rodgers<br />
101.9 Ben Roethlisberger<br />
99.5 Peyton Manning<br />
98.1 Philip Rivers<br />
97.1 Dante Culpepper<br />
96.8 Michael Vick<br />
94.5 Matt Shaub<br />
93.8 Joe Flacco<br />
93.2 Steve McNair<br />
92.8 Eli Manning<br />
92.0 Marc Bulger<br />
90.6 Tom Brady<br />
<b>89.8 Drew Brees<br />
85.2 Carson Palmer<br />
84.9 David Garrard<br />
83.3 Matt Ryan<br />
82.7 Jay Cutler<br />
81.0 Josh Freeman<br />
70.5 Matt Hasselbeck<br />
64.2 Matt Cassel</b><br />
92.9 Average<br />
<br />
The next filter I have is college competition level (ie.
division/conference). Suprisingly there are 3 of 24 QB's (12.5%) that
are from Division II. 30% of the QB's are from a non-major conference.
However most are from major conferences. I can weight these
conferences by power rankings, but I'll do that later. <br />
McNair, Pennington, Culpepper, and Roethlisberger put up prolific
passings yards (10,000+). Pennington & Culpepper played pro-style;
Roethlisberger and Flacco played shotgun.<br />
Romo and McNair won the Walter Payton Award (Heisman of Div II)<br />
<br />
Division Name<br />
ACC Philip Rivers<br />
ACC Michael Vick<br />
ACC Matt Shaub<br />
ACC Matt Ryan<br />
ACC Matt Hasselbeck<br />
Big 10 Tom Brady<br />
Big 10 Drew Brees<br />
Big 12 Sam Bradford<br />
Big 12 Josh Freeman<br />
Big East Donovan McNabb<br />
Big East Marc Bulger<br />
Pac 10 Aaron Rodgers<br />
Pac 10 Carson Palmer<br />
Pac 10 Matt Cassel<br />
SEC Peyton Manning<br />
SEC Eli Manning<br />
SEC Jay Cutler<br />
<b>Conf USA Chad Pennington<br />
Conf USA Dante Culpepper<br />
Conf USA David Garrard<br />
MAC Ben Roethlisberger<br />
Div II Tony Romo<br />
Div II Joe Flacco<br />
Div II Steve McNair</b><br />
<br />
My last filter for now is the system of offense. I won't get into the
details of spread/option/'Air Raid'/pro-style, but just distinguish QB's
that are used to dropping back vs those that use shotgun. Those with
hundreds of repetitions dropping back from center in real game
situations should have a huge advantage over those that don't. DB
stands for drop-back and SG for shotgun. I have limited research time
so this is the best I could come up with in regards to DB vs SG. Only 3
of the 24 (12.5%) primarily used shotgun. 4 of 24 (16.7%) used a heavy
dose of shotgun. The rest (71%) of QB's primarily dropped-back:<br />
<br />
DB Matt Shaub<br />
DB Matt Ryan<br />
DB Matt Hasselbeck<br />
DB Tom Brady<br />
DB Josh Freeman<br />
DB Marc Bulger<br />
DB Aaron Rodgers<br />
DB Carson Palmer<br />
DB Matt Cassel<br />
DB Peyton Manning<br />
DB Eli Manning<br />
DB Jay Cutler<br />
DB Chad Pennington<br />
DB Dante Culpepper<br />
DB David Garrard<br />
DB Tony Romo<br />
<b>DB/SG Philip Rivers<br />
DB/SG Michael Vick<br />
DB/SG Donovan McNabb<br />
DB/SG Steve McNair<br />
SG Sam Bradford<br />
SG Drew Brees<br />
SG Joe Flacco<br />
SG Ben Roethlisberger</b><br />
<br />
I'm going to weight all these categories in a formula and apply these to
the upcoming prospects to get a quantitative probability of success. I
think this could serve as a good foundation for analysis. One can
later complement this with a qualitative analysis and consider
intangibles. The quantitative analysis seems to give very good
guidelines for success in finding modern day franchise QB's.<br />
<br />
Note: I want to mention Joe Montana, Dan Marino, Brett Favre, Dan Fouts,
Warren Moon would not fare well in this quantitative analysis. It's
surprising that all these older NFL stars had unimpressive college
statistics (Montana had a QB rating of 74.7, Favre 75.9, Marino 78.7)...
Montana had as many INT's as TD's at Notre Dame. Of course Montana was
the Comeback Kid though.) Aikman, Elway, Young did have good ratings
though. I wonder if there is any reason for this. Maybe efficiency
was less emphasized in previous times... more modern QB's have much
better passer ratings than the stars of the past... maybe QB's were more
likely to sling the ball and not worry too much about interceptions in
the past...... Not sure... moneyballerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17661716733527756356noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778564158339582771.post-15313348369840404372013-04-24T19:46:00.002-07:002013-04-24T19:50:39.973-07:00Top Running Back Short List - 4/24/13Here is the RB list. I weighted it 60/40% on production as I did WR & TE. The measurables I used did not vary as much with running backs with the exception of Christine Michael who was really the only standout. Barner was a distant 2nd in measurables and was a touchdown machine which helped him jump up the rankings. Lattimore did not have measurables so I just used the average rating for him.<br />
<br />
I used combined rushing & receiving yds as well as touchdowns. Here is the list:<br />
<br />
<br />
1.*Eddie Lacy, Alabama 2.18<br />
2. Kenjon Barner, Oregon 1.61 <br />
3. Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina 1.56 <br />
4. Christine Michael, Texas A&M 1.53<br />
5. *Gio Bernard, North Carolina 1.50 <br />
6. Montee Ball, Wisconsin 1.37<br />
7. Joseph Randle, Oklahoma St. 1.16 <br />
8. Mike Gillislee, Florida 1.09<br />
9. Andre Ellington, Clemson 0.93 <br />
10. *Le'Veon Bell, Michigan St. 0.86<br />
11. Johnathan Franklin, UCLA 0.78<br />
<br />
12. Stepfan Taylor, Stanford 0.71 <br />
<br />
Just some interesting things I came across ... The top two rookies Alfred Morris & Doug Martin ran a 4.67sec and 4.55 sec 40yd dash respectively. Arian Foster ran a 4.69sec 40yd in his pro day. I was analyzing all the 1000+ rushers of 2012 and the top 5 in 2011 and found that 63% of the top backs were underclassmen (12 of 19 total. Shonn Greene came out as a Soph.)<br />
<br />
Ok... running out of time.. I'll make a quick stab at QB, re-rank the other positions with a 60/40 weighting and then do a quick mock for the 49ers....stay tuned and keep moneballin'!<br />
<br />
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moneyballerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17661716733527756356noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778564158339582771.post-38926404239250204892013-04-22T20:55:00.001-07:002013-04-22T20:55:18.361-07:00Top Tight End Short List 4/22/13Here is the TE list. Again this is a 60/40 weighting in favor of production vs measurables. For measurables I used Height, Weight, Vertical, Broad Jump, 40yd dash, 20yd shuttle, Bench Press. I made some adjustments in favor of TE's that are Juniors and have had more than one productive year whom I was able to average stats over a two year period. Otherwise I just took the most productive year for TE's that had limited play. I only have receiving statistics so adjustments should be made for blocking ability. <br />
Here is the list:<br />
<br />
<b>Overall Ranking (60% Active Stats/40% Measurables) </b><br />
<b>1. *Tyler Eifert , Notre Dame 2.86</b><br />
<b>2. *Zach Ertz, Stanford 2.74</b><br />
<b>3. Travis Kelce, Cincinnati 2.64</b><br />
<b>4. Joseph Fauria, UCLA 2.55</b><br />
<b>5. *Gavin Escobar, SDSU 2.32</b><br />
<b>6. Mychal Rivera, Tennessee 2.02 </b><br />
<b>7. Ryan Otten, SJSU 1.93 </b><br />
<b>8. Vance McDonald, Rice 1.82</b><br />
<b>9. *Dion Sims, Michigan St 1.82 </b><br />
<b>10. *Jordan Reed, Florida 1.81</b><br />
<b>11. Levine Toilolo, Stanford 1.43</b><b>12. Chris Gragg, Arkansas 1.42</b><br />
<b>13. Nick Kasa , Colorado 1.18</b><br />
<br />
For comparison, ranking based on (40% Active Stats/60% Measurables) <b></b><br />
1. *Tyler Eifert , Notre Dame 2.65<br />
2. Travis Kelce, Cincinnati 2.51<br />
3. Joseph Fauria, UCLA 2.44<br />
4. *Zach Ertz, Stanford 2.38<br />
5. *Gavin Escobar, SDSU 2.15<br />
6. Vance McDonald, Rice 1.99<br />
<br />
7. *Dion Sims, Michigan St 1.85 <br />
8. Mychal Rivera, Tennessee 1.81 <br />
9. Ryan Otten, SJSU 1.73 <br />
10. *Jordan Reed, Florida 1.68<br />
11. Levine Toilolo, Stanford 1.5712. Chris Gragg, Arkansas 1.53<br />
13. Nick Kasa , Colorado 1.44<br />
<br />
Next up Running Backs... keep moneyballin' ya'll! <br />
<br />
<br />
moneyballerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17661716733527756356noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778564158339582771.post-89208883571956144722013-04-22T20:25:00.000-07:002013-04-22T20:27:34.133-07:00Top Wide Receiver Short List - 4/22/13Ok so let's start on the offense. Just to give y'all an update I decided to adjust the weightings to give measurables a little bit more weight than I have been giving in the past and will eventually give an update on all the previous rankings. I wanted to make sure production was dominant so initially it was 75/25 in favor of production, but I will adjust it to 60/40 in favor of production after having seen the results. The results I was getting deviated too much from the mocks and historically the mocks and actual drafts have done a fairly good job identifying the best players. The purpose of the stat model was to take some of the measurables bias away from the evaluation. Keep in mind the measurables that are used in these models are based on metrics that have shown a history of statistical relevance according to Draftmetrics. No offensive lineman nor a QB needs a fast 40 and unfortunately people will still be influenced by bad numbers in this area. Remember Tom Brady ran a 5.28 sec 40yd dash. Furthermore there are some anomalies in measurables. The average successful NFL safety actual bench pressed less on average than the rest of his peer group. Successful corners typically bench pressed more than his peers. One might think the bench press combine statistic would be irrelevant for corners. In any case, I've used Draftmetrics to isolate the best measurables so even though I use the term 'measurables' this may differ from another evaluator's 'measurables.'<br />
See: <a href="http://www.draftmetrics.com/draft.asp?f=2">http://www.draftmetrics.com/draft.asp?f=2</a><br />
<br />
Here is the overall ranking for WR with a 60/40 weighting. For measurables I used: Height, Weight, 40yd dash, Vertical, Broad Jump. The stats I used were simply Yds/Game & TDs and made adjustments for competition based on conferences. Unfortunately I didn't have any drop statistics. I think Belichick once said all a good receiver needed to do was two things: 1) get open and 2) catch the ball. I gave Juniors a positive adjustment because there is typically a maturing process for WRs and you should expect productive Juniors who leave early to have much better Senior seasons if they were to stay in college. Also note KR/PR/Rushing stats are not included which hurts Cordarelle Patterson and Tavon Austin. I just stuck with pure receiving stats. Here is the list:<br />
<br />
<b>Overall Ranking: (60% Active Stats/ 40% Measurables)</b><br />
<b>1. * Stedman Bailey, West Virginia 2.43</b><br />
<b>2. * Justin Hunter, Tennessee 2.16</b><br />
<b>3. Terrance Williams, Baylor 2.15</b><br />
<b>4. Da'Rick Rogers, (former Tennessee), 2.05</b><br />
<b>5. *De'Andre Hopkins, Clemson, 1.88</b><br />
<b>6. *Robert Woods, USC 1.74 </b><br />
<b>7. *Cordarelle Patterson, Tennessee 1.66</b><br />
<b>8. Quinton Patton, Lousiana Tech 1.58 </b><br />
<b>9. Tavon Austin, West Virginia 1.57</b><br />
<b>10. Keenan Allen, California 1.43</b><br />
<b>11. Aaron Dobson, Marshall 1.39</b><br />
<b>12. Markus Wheaton, Oregon St, 1.30</b><br />
<br />
For comparison here is what happens when measurables are dominant. I feel the NFL draft will look closer to this (Austin & Cordarelle would go higher because of their special team/rushing skills):<br />
<br />
Ranking: (40% Active Stats/ 60% Measurables)<br />
1. * Justin Hunter, Tennessee 2.41<br />
2. Da'Rick Rogers, (former Tennessee), 2.30<br />
3. Terrance Williams, Baylor 2.19<br />
4. *Cordarelle Patterson, Tennessee 2.11<br />
5. * Stedman Bailey, West Virginia 2.07<br />
6. *De'Andre Hopkins, Clemson, 2.018.<br />
7. Aaron Dobson, Marshall 1.84<br />
8. *Robert Woods, USC 1.81 <br />
9. Quinton Patton, Lousiana Tech 1.69<br />
10. Keenan Allen, California 1.53 <br />
11. Tavon Austin, West Virginia 1.44<br />
12. Markus Wheaton, Oregon St, 1.41<br />
<br />
Next up: TE's!<br />
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<br />moneyballerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17661716733527756356noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778564158339582771.post-7410232694085979142013-04-20T23:15:00.000-07:002013-04-20T23:15:24.670-07:00Top Defensive Tackle Short List - 4/20/13 According to Draftmetrics, the measurables for DTs are not that useful in predicting success so I only weighted this category 15%. The active stat category is at 60% and the passive stat category is 25%. For the passive stats category I just used the team defense statistics with a 75% weighting on run defense and 25% on pass defense because the interior lineman are more important against the run than the DEs. <br />
<br />
Here is the list:<br />
<br />Overall Ranking<br />1. *Sharrif Floyd, Florida 1.87<br />2. *Sheldon Richardson, Missouri 1.78<br />3. Kawann Short, Purdue 1.78<br />4. *Bennie Logan, LSU 1.76<br />5. Jesse Williams, Alabama 1.58<br />6. Sylvester Williams, North Carolina 1.58<br />7. Brandon Williams, Missouri Southern State 1.51<br />8. Star Lotulelei, Utah 1.44<br />9. John Jenkins, Georgia 1.39<br />10.*Johnathan Hankins, Ohio St.1.36<br /><br />Active Stats (60% Weighting)<br />1. Kawann Short, Purdue 1.79<br />2. *Sheldon Richardson, Missouri 1.60<br />3. *Sharrif Floyd, Florida 1.24<br />4. *Bennie Logan, LSU 1.19<br />5. Brandon Williams, Missouri Southern State 1.17<br />6. Sylvester Williams, North Carolina 1.15<br />7. Star Lotulelei, Utah .96<br />8. John Jenkins, Georgia .81<br />9.*Johnathan Hankins, Ohio St .63<br />10. Jesse Williams, Alabama .59<br /><br />Passive Stats (25% Weighting)<br />
Team Data Used: (75% Rushing/ 25% Passing)<br />
0 - .5pts TDs passing allowed (4 - 38 TDs)<br />
0 - .5pts Yds/Att (5.0- 9.3 yds/att)<br />
0 - 1.5pt TDs allowed rushing (5 -37 TDs)<br />
0 - 1.5pt Yds/Rush Att (2.43 - 6.7 yds/rush att)<br />
<br />1. Jesse Williams, Alabama 3.58<br />2. *Sharrif Floyd, Florida 3.34<br />3. *Bennie Logan, LSU 3.09<br />4.*Johnathan Hankins, Ohio St. 2.82<br />5. Sylvester Williams, North Carolina 2.44<br />6. Star Lotulelei, Utah 2.41<br />7. John Jenkins, Georgia 2.4<br />8. Brandon Williams, Missouri Southern State 2.22<br />9. *Sheldon Richardson, Missouri 1.94<br />10. Kawann Short, Purdue 1.75<br /><br />Measurables: (15 % Weighting)<br />Height (72- 78 in) 0-.75pts<br />Weight (280 - 330lbs) 0-.75pts<br />10yd split (1.59 - 1.9) 0 - .84pts<br />Vertical (20.5 - 35.5) 0 - .83pts<br />20yd shuttle (4.12 - 5.03) 0 - .83pts<br />
<br />1. Star Lotulelei, Utah 2.41<br />2. *Sheldon Richardson, Missouri 2.22<br />3. Jesse Williams, Alabama 2.19<br />4. John Jenkins, Georgia 2.04<br />5. *Sharrif Floyd, Florida 1.95<br />6. Sylvester Williams, North Carolina 1.9<br />7. *Bennie Logan, LSU 1.86<br />8.*Johnathan Hankins, Ohio St.1.82<br />9. Kawann Short, Purdue 1.8<br />10. Brandon Williams, Missouri Southern State 1.67<br />
<br />I'm going to skip Inside Linebackers so I can start on the offense. Next up WR!moneyballerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17661716733527756356noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778564158339582771.post-50360735779792058272013-04-17T00:30:00.002-07:002013-04-17T00:37:14.690-07:00Top Outside Linebacker Short List - 4/17/13Here is the OLB short list. Many of the smaller DEs in my previous DE list can play OLB in the 3-4 so you can use both lists to search for the best potential OLB. I used the same method for measurables and passive stats as in the DE list. I also added a sleeper pick Phillip Steward from Houston who isn't projected to be drafted. I just wanted to see where he landed. <br />
<br />
<br />
Overall rankings:<br />
<br />
1 *Jarvis Jones, Georgia 2.59 <br />
2 Khaseem Greene, Rutgers 2.23 <br />
3 Jamie Collins, Southern Mississippi 2.23 <br />
4 Sio Moore, UConn 2.08<br />
5 *Barkevious Mingo, LSU 2.04 <br />
6 Zavier Gooden, Missouri 1.95 <br />
7 John Simon, Ohio St. 1.89<br />
8 Gerald Hodges, Penn St. 1.83<br />
9 Arthur Brown, Kansas State 1.81<br />
10 Phillip Steward, Houston 1.70<br />
11 Dion Jordan, Oregon 1.61<br />
12 Brandon Jenkins, Florida State 1.59 <br />
13 Cornelius Washington, Georgia 1.38<br />
<br />
* Junior <br />
<br />
Active Stats: (60% Weighting)<br />
1 *Jarvis Jones, Georgia 3.31 <br />
2 Khaseem Greene, Rutgers 2.33 <br />
3 Jamie Collins, Southern Mississippi 2.13 <br />
4 Sio Moore, UConn 1.85<br />
5 Phillip Steward, Houston 1.75<br />
6 Zavier Gooden, Missouri 1.66<br />
7 Arthur Brown, Kansas State 1.66<br />
8 John Simon, Ohio St. 1.60<br />
9 *Barkevious Mingo, LSU 1.59 <br />
10 Gerald Hodges, Penn St. 1.58<br />
11 Brandon Jenkins, Florida State 1.45 <br />
12 Dion Jordan, Oregon 1.04 <br />
13 Cornelius Washington, Georgia 0.73 <br />
<br />
Passive Stats Ranking (15% weighting)<br />
<br />
Team Data Used: (75% Passing/ 25% Rushing)<br />
0 - 1.5pts TDs passing allowed (4 - 38 TDs)<br />
0 - 1.5pts Yds/Att (5.0- 9.3 yds/att)<br />
0 - .5pt TDs allowed rushing (5 -37 TDs)<br />
0 - .5pt Yds/Rush Att (2.43 - 6.7 yds/rush att)<br />
<br />
1 Brandon Jenkins, Florida State 3.02 <br />
2 Khaseem Greene, Rutgers 2.99<br />
3 *Barkevious Mingo, LSU 2.99 <br />
4 Gerald Hodges, Penn St. 2.84<br />
5 Sio Moore, UConn 2.80 <br />
6 John Simon, Ohio St. 2.74<br />
7 Dion Jordan, Oregon 2.7<br />
8 *Jarvis Jones, Georgia 2.5<br />
9 Cornelius Washington, Georgia 2.5 <br />
10 Arthur Brown, Kansas State 2.45<br />
11 Zavier Gooden, Missouri 2.04<br />
12 Phillip Steward, Houston 1.9 <br />
13 Jamie Collins, Southern Mississippi 1.40 <br />
<br />
Measurables (25% weighting)<br />
<br />
Data used:<br />
Height: 0 - .5pts (72.5- 78.5 in)<br />
Weight 0 -.5pts (238 - 278 lbs)<br />
20yd shuttle 0 - .75pt (4.03 - 4.59 secs)<br />
Vertical 0-.75pt (29.5 - 42 in)<br />
40yd 0 - .5pt (4.43 - 5.00 secs)<br />
3-cone drill 0 -.5pt (6.69 -7.85 secs)<br />
Broad jump 0 - .5pt (105 - 132 in)<br />
<br />
1 Jamie Collins, Southern Mississippi 2.96 <br />
2 Zavier Gooden, Missouri 2.58<br />
3 *Barkevious Mingo, LSU 2.53 <br />
4 Dion Jordan, Oregon 2.3<br />
5 Cornelius Washington, Georgia 2.25 <br />
6 Sio Moore, UConn 2.19<br />
7 John Simon, Ohio St. 2.07<br />
8 Gerald Hodges, Penn St. 1.85<br />
9 Arthur Brown, Kansas State 1.78 <br />
10 Khaseem Greene, Rutgers 1.52<br />
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11 Phillip Steward, Houston 1.43<br />
12 Brandon Jenkins, Florida State 1.08 <br />
13 *Jarvis Jones, Georgia 0.91 <br />
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Next up: Defensive Tackles!<br />
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<br />moneyballerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17661716733527756356noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778564158339582771.post-37196733264354073742013-04-13T23:41:00.003-07:002013-04-14T10:16:12.992-07:00Top Defensive End Short List - 4/13/13Here is the list of the top defensive ends using a similar stat model as I used for safeties and corners. There are two types of DEs, smaller DE's that could fit in a 4-3 or as a 3-4 OLB and bigger ones that might be able to fit in as a 5 technique in a 3-4. I just put them all in one list because that's how GBN Draft Report had them. (Note: I added William Gholston in the top 10 evaluation list because I knew he was productive on a very good defense. He was typically ranked around the #15 spot because of his measurables.)<br />
<br />
Overall Ranking:<br />
1. Damontre Moore, Texas A&M 2.19<br />
2. Ziggy Anash, BYU 2.17<br />
3. Bjoern Werner, Florida St 2.12<br />
4. Margus Hunt, SMU 1.87 (5T)<br />
5. William Gholston, Michigan St 1.73 (5T)<br />
6. Sam Montgomery, LSU 1.72 <br />
7. Alex Okafor, Texas 1.67<br />
8. Tank Carradine, Florida St 1.66 (5T)<br />
9. Corey Lemonier, Auburn 1.63 <br />
10. Datone Jones, UCLA 1.55 (5T)<br />
11. Michael Buchanan, Illinois, 1.42<br />
12. Malliciah Goodman, Clemson 1.21 (5T)<br />
<br />
Active Stats Ranking (60% weighting)<br />
1. Damontre Moore, Texas A&M 2.23<br />
2. Bjoern Werner, Florida St 2.07 <br />
3. Ziggy Anash, BYU 1.77
<br />
4. Alex Okafor, Texas 1.75<br />
5. Corey Lemonier, Auburn 1.51<br />
6. Sam Montgomery, LSU 1.48 <br />
7. William Gholston, Michigan St 1.43 (5T)
<br />
8. Datone Jones, UCLA 1.37 (5T)<br />
9. Margus Hunt, SMU 1.36 (5T) <br />
10. Michael Buchanan, Illinois, 1.26<br />
11. Tank Carradine, Florida St 1.06 (5T)
<br />
12. Malliciah Goodman, Clemson 0.87 (5T)<br />
<br />
Passive Stats Ranking (15% weighting)<br />
<br />
Team Data Used: (75% Passing/ 25% Rushing)<br />
I used this weighting because ends have a larger responsibility putting pressure on the QB than interior lineman.<br />
<br />
0 - 1.5pts TDs passing allowed (4 - 38 TDs)<br />
0 - 1.5pts Yds/Att (5.0- 9.3 yds/att)<br />
0 - .5pt TDs allowed rushing (5 -37 TDs)<br />
0 - .5pt Yds/Rush Att (2.43 - 6.7 yds/rush att)<br />
<br />
1. Bjoern Werner, Florida St 3.48<br />
2. Tank Carradine, Florida St 3.48 (5T)<br />
3. William Gholston, Michigan St 3.47 (5T)
<br />
4. Ziggy Anash, BYU 3.19<br />
5. Sam Montgomery, LSU 2.99 <br />
6. Damontre Moore, Texas A&M 2.46<br />
7. Margus Hunt, SMU 2.09 (5T)
<br />
8. Malliciah Goodman, Clemson 1.96 (5T)<br />
9. Corey Lemonier, Auburn 1.82<br />
10. Alex Okafor, Texas 1.81<br />
11. Datone Jones, UCLA 1.73 (5T)<br />
12. Michael Buchanan, Illinois, 1.54<br />
<br />
Measurables (25% weighting)<br />
<br />
I used two point systems, one for larger 5T prospects and the other for smaller 3-4 OLB/standard 4-3 DEs<br />
<br />
Data used for smaller DEs:<br />
Height: 0 - .5pts (72.5- 78.5 in)<br />
Weight 0 -.5pts (238 - 278 lbs)<br />
20yd shuttle 0 - .75pt (4.03 - 4.59 secs)<br />
Vertical 0-.75pt (29.5 - 42 in)<br />
40yd 0 - .5pt (4.43 - 5.00 secs)<br />
3-cone drill 0 -.5pt (6.69 -7.85 secs)<br />
Broad jump 0 - .5pt (105 - 132 in)<br />
<br />
Data used for larger DEs: <br />
Height: 0 - .5pts (74 - 80 in)<br />
Weight 0 -.5pts (260 - 300 lbs)<br />
40yd 0 - 1pt (4.56 - 5.12 secs)<br />
225lb Bench 0 -.75pt (15 -36 times)<br />
Broad 0 -.5pt (102 - 125in)<br />
<br />
1. Margus Hunt, SMU 2.98 (5T)
<br />
2. Ziggy Anash, BYU 2.41<br />
3. Tank Carradine, Florida St 2.0 (5T) <br />
4. Datone Jones, UCLA 1.89 (5T)<br />
5. Damontre Moore, Texas A&M1.88 <br />
6. Corey Lemonier, Auburn 1.80<br />
7. Michael Buchanan, Illinois, 1.74 <br />
8. Malliciah Goodman, Clemson 1.58 (5T)<br />
9. Sam Montgomery, LSU 1.54 <br />
10. William Gholston, Michigan St 1.41 (5T)<br />
11. Bjoern Werner, Florida St 1.4 <br />
12. Alex Okafor, Texas 1.4 <br />
<br />
Resource:<br />
<a href="http://www.draftmetrics.com/files/The%20Combine%20ChroniclesDE.pdf">http://www.draftmetrics.com/files/The%20Combine%20ChroniclesDE.pdf</a><br />
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<br />
Next up OLB's! <br />
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<br />moneyballerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17661716733527756356noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778564158339582771.post-57410298363974974112013-04-13T12:10:00.001-07:002013-04-14T10:15:57.398-07:00Top Safety Short List - 4/13/13Using a similar analysis to the Top Corner Short List, I ranked the safeties. There was no distinction made between FS and SS although if I did I would put more emphasis on certain stats depending on the type of safety. For passive stats, I figured the safeties are the captains of the secondary so I used team pass defense as a proxy for success because I had no individual stats on: completion % against/1st downs allowed/TDs allowed. The two main metrics in the team defense category was Yds/Att and pass TDs allowed. I understand that having a defensive front that creates pressure could influence these stats, but I didn't adjust for that in this analysis. For measurables I just used Height &Weight along with 40time & 3cone drill because according to Draftmetrics those combine numbers are the most correlated with 3yr starting success. (Interestingly enough bench press was negatively correlated meaning that the more a safety bench pressed compared to the avg, the less chance that safety had of success. On the other hand for cornerbacks, bench press numbers were a fairly significant factor.) Here is the list: <br />
<br />
Overall Rankings (60% Active Stats, 15% Passive Stats, 25% Measurables)<br />
1. Matt Elam, Florida 2.50<br />
2. Phillip Thomas, Fresno St 2.37<br />
3. Bacarri Rambo, Georgia 2.32<br />
4. D.J. Swearinger, South Carolina 1.93<br />
5. Shawn Williams, Georgia 1.92<br />
6. Kenny Vaccaro, Texas 1.91<br />
7. Eric Reid, LSU 1.85<br />
8. TJ McDonald, USC 1.77<br />
9. Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma, 1.70<br />
10. Jonathan Cyprien FIU 1.62<br />
11. Shamarko Thomas Syracuse, 1.47<br />
12. JJ Wilcox Georgia Southern, 1.09<br />
<br />
<u>Supplemental Info: </u><br />
<br />
Active Stat Rankings (55%)<br />
1. Matt Elam, Florida 2.50<br />
2. Bacarri Rambo, Georgia 2.32
<br />
3. Phillip Thomas, Fresno St 2.31
<br />
4. Kenny Vaccaro, Texas 1.80
<br />
5. D.J. Swearinger, South Carolina 1.80<br />
6. Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma, 1.70
<br />
7. Shawn Williams, Georgia 1.61<br />
8. Eric Reid, LSU 1.47
<br />
9. TJ McDonald, USC 1.42<br />
10. Jonathan Cyprien FIU 1.39
<br />
11. Shamarko Thomas Syracuse 1.02<br />
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12. JJ Wilcox Georgia Southern 0.45<br />
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Resource:<br />
<a href="http://www.cfbstats.com/">www.cfbstats.com</a><br />
<br />
Passive Stat Rankings (15%)<br />
Team Data used:<br />
Team Yds/Attempt (5.9 - 9.3 yds/att)<br />
TDs Allowed (4 - 38 TDs) <br />
<br />
1. Matt Elam, Florida 3.54<br />
2. Phillip Thomas, Fresno St 3.03
<br />
3. Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma, 2.94<br />
4. Eric Reid, LSU 2.93
<br />
5. Bacarri Rambo, Georgia 2.54<br />
6. Shawn Williams, Georgia 2.54<br />
7. D.J. Swearinger, South Carolina 2.39 <br />
8. TJ McDonald, USC 2.22<br />
9. JJ Wilcox Georgia Southern 2.21<br />
10. Kenny Vaccaro, Texas 1.95<br />
11. Jonathan Cyprien FIU 1.80
<br />
12. Shamarko Thomas Syracuse 1.63
<br />
<br />
Measurables (25%)<br />
<br />
Data used:<br />
Height: 0 - .5pts (69 - 75 inches)<br />
Weight 0 -.5pts (185 - 225 lbs) <br />
40yd 0 - 1.5pts (4.31 - 4.80 secs)<br />
3-cone drill 0 -1.5pts (6.48 -7.43 secs)<br />
<br />
1. Shamarko Thomas Syracuse 2.44<br />
2. TJ McDonald, USC 2.34 <br />
3. Shawn Williams, Georgia 2.30<br />
4. Bacarri Rambo, Georgia 2.18 <br />
5. Kenny Vaccaro, Texas 2.16<br />
6. Phillip Thomas, Fresno St 2.15 <br />
7. Eric Reid, LSU 2.12<br />
8. Jonathan Cyprien FIU 2.05 <br />
9. D.J. Swearinger, South Carolina 1.98 <br />
10. JJ Wilcox Georgia Southern 1.95<br />
11. Matt Elam, Florida 1.85<br />
12. Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma, 0.84<br />
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Next position... Defensive Line! Till next time keep moneballin'! <br />
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<br />moneyballerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17661716733527756356noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7778564158339582771.post-45859875851947489752013-04-11T19:32:00.001-07:002013-04-14T10:15:39.103-07:00Top Cornerback Short List - 4/11/13<br />
So here comes the NFL draft again. It's always an exciting time when teams get to carefully select the building blocks of their future. The draft has become even more important for teams now that the rookie salary cap is in place. Teams can lock young players for longer and cheaper so a lot of big-name veteran talent are having a much tougher time getting signed for big money as teams focus more on the draft. Just imagine Alfred Morris was the NFL's 2nd leading rusher and he signed a 4yr rookie contract! (I disagree with the rookie salary cap, because I think players need to get paid. I bet a lot of veterans who were in favor of a rookie salary cap aren't now, but that's a topic for another discussion.) Anyways the draft is always fascinating because there is always such a diverse group of opinions and perspectives for evaluating talent and so many factors involved in a draftee's success. I think the current bias of talent evaluators are that they focus too much on combine numbers and film. Although these are important factors for evaluating players, one factor that seems to be overlooked is just a player's raw production. I say give me the right statistics and info for a player and I don't need to watch film. With that in mind I plan to give my evaluation of players with production statistics as the core of my analysis. I started with the cornerback position. <br />
<br />
Overall Ranking<br />
1. Tyrann Mathieu 2.46<br />
2. Jordan Poyer 2.21<br />
3. Dee Milliner 2.09<br />
4. Xavier Rhodes 2.04<br />
5. Logan Ryan 2.01<br />
6. Johnthan Banks 2.00<br />
7. Darius Slay 1.98<br />
8. Desmond Trufant 1.97<br />
9. Jamar Taylor 1.81<br />
10. Blidi Wreh-Wilson 1.80 <br />
11. David Amerson 1.79<br />
12. Robert Alford 1.75<br />
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Just to give you an idea of how much of a playmaker Tyrann Mathieu the 'Honeybadger' was, in 26 games he amassed 4 ints, 16 passes defended, 2TD's, 11 Forced fumbles, 6sacks, 4QB hurries, 16 Tackles for Loss, and 93 Solo Tackles! In terms of measurables and combine numbers Mathieu is dead last. Poyer is second to last with pathetic numbers (30.5 inch vertical?!) and Logan Ryan & Johnthan Banks make up the bottom four. However they make up 4 of my top 6 in the overall ranking because they are the leaders of the active stat category. I couldn't have asked for such a stark contrast between measurables and production. Let's see how this plays out in the future! <br />
<br />
Methodology: I started with a list from Great Blue North Draft Report & Draft Countdown and selected the top 10 players on each list. I added one player (Tyrann Mathieu) ranked below the top ten in all the lists because I knew Tyrann was very productive in '11 & '10. For cornerbacks, the most commonly available and simple statistics are passes defended and interceptions. Generally those who are active playmakers and have ball skills have higher PD's & Ints. Secondarily a cornerbacks ability to help in run support can be measured by forced fumbles, sacks, tackles for losses, solo tackles, assist tackles. I threw in blocked kicks/punts because although those are for special teams plays and are rare and helps measure a unique kind of athleticism. I then just combined the statistics based on a fantasy football style point system:<br />
<br />
1 point - Passes defended<br />
2 points - Interceptions<br />
6 points - TDs<br />
2 points - Forced fumbles<br />
1 point - Sacks/Tackles for losses<br />
.1 point - Solo Tackles<br />
.05 point - Assist Tackles<br />
2 points - Blocked kicks<br />
<br />
I then made an adjustment based on competition. The best conference power rankings I found was from TeamRanking.com. I averaged the 2012/2011 seasons and adjusted the stats based on what conference a player competed in. The SEC as always was the top conference so no adjustments were made for those players in the SEC. The weakest DI conference received a -30% adjustment and the rest were in between 0% and -30%. (It was -50% for DII) Sometimes statistics can't be measured in active stats. Shutdown corners are hardly thrown to. Some corners are active at playing the ball, but also give up many touchdowns (ie. David Amerson) Therefore, I used the 2nd Round Stats website analysis on completion % against (the lower the better) for six cornerbacks and gave 0 - 3.75 points. (It would be nice to have TDs & first downs allowed, but those are too difficult to obtain.) I gave an average of 2 pts for those that did not have any statistics and made a few other adjustments based on info I knew about particular players. Lastly I used Draftmetrics to use historical correlations of measurables/combine numbers to measure draft pick success.<br />
<br />
Total weightings:<br />
55% Active Stats <br />
20% Passive Stats<br />
25% Measurables <br />
<br />
Active Stat Leaders (55% Weighting)<br />
1. Tyrann Mathieu 3.20<br />
2. Johnthan Banks 2.32<br />
3. Logan Ryan 2.24<br />
4. Jordan Poyer 2.08<br />
5. Dee Milliner 2.00<br />
6. David Amerson 1.82<br />
7. Blidi Wreh-Wilson 1.61<br />
8. Darius Slay 1.57<br />
9. Desmond Trufant 1.47<br />
10. Robert Alford (Est. 1.35 due to DII conference)<br />
11. Jamar Taylor 1.32 <br />
12. Xavier Rhodes 1.19<br />
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List of Awesome Resources<br />
1. CFB Stats <br />
<a href="http://www.cfbstats.com/">http://www.cfbstats.com/</a><br />
2. TeamRankings<br />
http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/overall-power-ranking-by-conf<br />
3. Great Blue North Draft Report<br />
<a href="http://www.gbnreport.com/">http://www.gbnreport.com/</a><br />
4. DraftCountdown<br />
<a href="http://www.draftcountdown.com/">http://www.draftcountdown.com/</a><br />
<br />
Passive Stat Leaders (20% Weighting)<br />
1. Jordan Poyer 3.74<br />
2. Xavier Rhodes 3.37<br />
3. Darius Slay 2.72<br />
4. Desmond Trufant 2.55<br />
5. Jamar Taylor 2.5 (Team Def Allowed Only 4 Passing TDs)<br />
6. Dee Milliner 2.14<br />
7. Johnthan Banks 1.76<br />
8. David Amerson 1.0 (Allowed incredible amount of TDs)<br />
9. Everyone else 2.0<br />
<br />
List of Awesome Resources<br />
Second Round Stats<br />
<a href="http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/18/cbs-1/">http://secondroundstats.com/2013/02/18/cbs-1/</a><br />
(Great resource on completion stats against six cornerbacks! These are the kind of stats we need to track! Unfortantely stats are limited to 4-game samples.)<br />
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Measurables (25% Weighting)<br />
1. Xavier Rhodes 2.84<br />
2. Desmond Trufant 2.59<br />
3. Robert Alford 2.42<br />
4. David Amerson 2.35<br />
5. Jamar Taylor 2.32<br />
6. Darius Slay 2.28<br />
7. Dee Milliner 2.27<br />
8. Blidi Wreh-Wilson 2.06<br />
9. Logan Ryan 1.51<br />
10. Johnthan Banks 1.50<br />
11. Jordan Poyer 1.29<br />
12. Tyrann Mathieu 1.22<br />
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Data Used:<br />
Height 0-.5pts (68 - 74 inches)<br />
Weight 0-.5pts (175 - 215)<br />
40yd 0-1pt (4.27 - 4.67 secs)<br />
Vertical 0-1pt (30 - 42 inches)<br />
20yd shuttle 0-.5pt (3.67 - 4.67 secs)<br />
Bench Press 0-.5pt (3 - 27 times)<br />
<br />
List of Awesome Resources: <br />
Draft Metrics (combine stat range for 3yr NFL starters)<br />
<a href="http://www.draftmetrics.com/files/The%20Combine%20ChronicleCB.pdf">http://www.draftmetrics.com/files/The%20Combine%20ChronicleCB.pdf</a><br />
(A lot of great studies on combine stats correlation with starting in the NFL and other reports!)<br />
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The next position I plan to work on is Safety.... until then keep moneyballin'!moneyballerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17661716733527756356noreply@blogger.com0